Global economy faces a steep clamber back to health

​Even with rescue efforts, the world is still suffering its worst economic crisis since the Great DepressionThe world economy is entering the second half of 2020 still weighed down by the coronavirus pandemic with a full recovery now ruled out for 2020 and even a 2021 comeback dependent on a lot going right.

It’s an economic trajectory Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president Thomas Barkin has likened to riding the elevator down, but needing to take the stairs back up. It’s now likely that global GDP by the end of 2021 will in many cases still be lower than where it was at the end of 2019, according to HSBC Holdings economists led by Janet Henry. Bloomberg Economics describes it as “Goodbye Victory V, Hello Worry W”.

In South Korea, which flattened its infection curve months ago, the emergence of new virus clusters is casting a chill on shoppers. It also means fast-expanding emerging economies won’t be the global growth engine they have been, with the World Bank predicting this group of countries will shrink 2.5% — their worst performance in data that starts in 1960. Latin America is now on the front lines of the virus.

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