Expect another record year of load shedding in South Africa: economists

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As South Africa appears to be leaving the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic behind it, much of the focus this year will be on getting the economic basics right. However, this could prove difficult given the country’s widening energy supply gap, say economists at investment bank BNP Paribas.

2021 saw a record year of electricity supply cuts, as Eskom struggled with unplanned outages and the maintenance of ageing plants that could no longer be delayed.

– with risk of higher stages in the event of higher unplanned breakdowns as occurred in 2021. This is likely to dampen GDP growth by at least 1 percentage point, in our view,” the bank said in a research note on Thursday . “We have to emphasise that the power system is unreliable and unpredictable due to insufficient maintenance of generation plant over many years. Maintenance outages take around 24 months to plan, and take from three to six months to execute.

With Eskom’s legal separation of its transmission business near its conclusion, the focus in 2022 will be on the planned establishment of a National Transmission Company South Africa , BNP Paribas said.

 

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