Eskom’s load shedding forecast for the next year

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Eskom has published its summer load shedding forecast for 2022, with the power utility warning that its system is likely to remain constrained for the near future.

In a presentation on Thursday , the group said that it has not implemented load shedding since 19 November 2021, but that the generation side of the business remains a concern, specifically the availability of the coal power stations.

Eskom’s data shows that most of its coal power stations are operating past the midway of their operational life, at an average of 42 years, resulting in high levels of breakdowns. “The drive to implement the reliability maintenance and refurbishment projects in order to address the unreliability is underway to get the plant performance back to acceptable levels. The public is, therefore, cautioned to expect an elevated risk of load shedding while the reliability maintenance program is being implemented.”

“The highest number of load shedding incidents took place during 2015. These tended to be mostly over evening peak periods, for a short duration, due to insufficient peaking generation capacity.

 

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