Growth paths are elusive as our economic debates are warped by politics, while repairing the debt trajectory requires astute restructuring and policy reforms. The IMF’s advantage is that it deciphers economic woes and governance failures dispassionately. But will the lender of last resort deem SA’s politics incorrigible?
The IMF is uniquely experienced at assessing sovereign debt sustainability. Our debt trajectory cannot be made sustainable without restructuring the economy to swell exports while “reprofiling” government and household debt. But how much political adaptability is plausible before, or even after, the 2024 scheduled elections? Whereas betting on 2024 is a distant and vague proposition, the ANC’s lockdown decision-making lethargy points to it minimising IMF engagement for as long as possible.
The ANC wants to attract more capital to feed its patronage network, but the nation’s repayment capacity has been exceeded. Focusing on infrastructure investments sidesteps the implications of stagnating domestic consumption. In the absence of a sustained surge in exports, accompanied by much debt relief, our horrendous levels of unemployment and poverty will be entrenched for decades.
New loans to overindebted, economically enfeebled entities are typically contingent on policy shifts and concessions from existing debtholders. A substantial IMF engagement would need to meaningfully mitigate our economy’s core disenablers, patronage politics and inadequate market access.
South Africa Latest News, South Africa Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Economy will probably go from bad to worse before ANC engages with IMFWhile the governing party aims to attract more capital, the global lender will want policy reforms before it offers a large borrowing facility
Source: BDliveSA - 🏆 12. / 63 Read more »
ANTHONY BUTLER: Ramaphosa extends theme of Good ANC v Bad ANCParty’s national executive committee meets this week to discuss president’s recent comments on corruption
Source: BDliveSA - 🏆 12. / 63 Read more »
WATCH: What will happen to corrupt ANC officialsBusiness Times contributing editor Hilary Joffe and a panel of journalists discuss stories making the news in the latest edition of Editing Allowed
Source: BDliveSA - 🏆 12. / 63 Read more »
Calls mount for Cyril Ramaphosa to quit at heated ANC NEC meetingAt least eight ANC national executive committee members have called for ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa to step down as the three-day NEC meeting continues.
Source: IOL - 🏆 46. / 51 Read more »
Source: ewnupdates - 🏆 30. / 53 Read more »
TONY LEON: Ramaphosa’s Catch 22: sacrifice the ANC to save the countryDecisive action is improbable if not impossible because of the contradictions inherent in the president’s situation
Source: BDliveSA - 🏆 12. / 63 Read more »