The latest report from the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium shows that the numbers of actual infections and detected cases “may be comparable”.A Covid-19 4th wave is likely to be less severe, say modellers, but hospitals could still be overwhelmed.The ratio of hospital admissions and deaths to infections and cases in SA's predicted Covid-19 fourth wave is “expected to be substantially lower than in previous waves”.
That’s thanks to vaccinations, particularly among the elderly, and because of protection from previous infections,with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases on Wednesday. Researcher Dr Sheetal Silal said that “even in the hypothetical scenario of a complete abandonment of a behavioural response to resurgence, the size of the fourth wave in admissions is projected to be smaller than the third wave, in the absence of a new variant”.Silal emphasized that the latest report should be read as an analysis of scenarios and not as forecasts.
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