19 October 2021 - 17:45A street in the boomtown of Shenzhen in southern China. Picture: QILAI SHEN/BLOOMBERG
But the push by China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong to narrow disparities between ultrarich urbanites and the rural poor under the banner of “common prosperity” may provide the needed political will to push through a nationwide property tax, currently on the legislative agenda for 2021-2025.A property tax may finally tame surging home prices.
“It would be a major policy change in the history of China’s real estate development,” said Betty Wang, senior China economist at ANZ in Hong Kong. “It would be a medium- to long-term policy change.”A 0.7% rate is plausible, though in practice, China is likely to take a tiered approach with differentiated rates depending on the city, said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.
But local governments may not necessarily be the ones getting this new revenue, reducing their incentive to collect such taxes, said Rocky Fan, economist at Sealand Securities. Real estate accounts for nearly 60% of urban household assets, compared with 20.4% allocated to financial assets including stocks and bonds, according to China’s central bank. In contrast, US households hold more than 40% of their wealth in financial assets.
China is headed one way - down.
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