China halting US soy imports is unlikely to hurt anyone soon

American farmers shouldn’t panic just yet as there are other soy markets, and this fight is about perceived power not productsIf you’re haggling over the price of goods at a market, there often comes a point when the buyer threatens to walk away. It’s up to the seller to decide whether that’s a bluff.

For one thing, any embargo on American soy would be barely perceptible for the next few months. Typically, no more than 5% to 10% of China’s US soybean imports arrive between May and September, with the vast bulk shipping during the balance of the year, when Brazil’s soybean exports slump. By the time China’s buying activity starts to make a difference to the US farm belt again, the next presidential election and a possible diplomatic re-set will be just weeks away.

The two-year target of $200bn in increased Chinese imports from the US in the phase one trade deal signed in January was already looking challenging. A near-doubling of inbound trade was always going to be a stretch, and that was before the damage the coronavirus has done to demand in China and supply chains in the US.

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