Can indices excluding China tell us anything useful?

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The decision by BlackRock to treat the world’s second-largest economy as a standalone phenomenon brings its own problems

Investors look at computer screens showing stock information in Shanghai, China. Picture: REUTERS/ALY SONG

Many investors remain positive on China despite the uncertainties surrounding the regulatory squeeze on its Big Tech firms, its “common prosperity” drive and intensifying rivalry with the US. But they acknowledge it’s becoming much more difficult to assess the risks back-to-back with other countries.

Though the third-largest country weight in MSCI’s All-Country stock index, China’s 4.05% weight lags Japan’s almost 6% and the nearly 60% for US companies. Given that China represents a whopping 34% weighting in MSCI’s emerging markets equity index, an “exChina” investment in emerging markets would appear to be a very different proposition indeed.

What’s more, August was the first month since March 2020 where emerging markets excluding China showed net outflows for both equity and debt.

 

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