Argentina's economy minister Martin Guzman gestures during an interview with Reuters in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in this March 11 2020 file photo. Picture: REUTERS/AGUSTIN MARCARIANArgentina’s insistence on its deficit spending plan is putting it on a fresh collision course with the International Monetary Fund, though analysts predict the country will be forced to change tack and clinch a deal to avoid a bigger crisis.
Guzman said the fund’s proposal would “halt the economic recovery that Argentina is having,” while his plan “would give continuity to this strong recovery.” Siobhan Morden, an MD at Amherst Pierpont Securities, described the plan as a “defiant approach to insist on a failed economic model.” But the fund itself has criticised the previous plan as too fragile to tackle Argentina’s economic and political reality and too accepting of overly optimistic economic projections by the government.His plan predicts economic growth at almost double the rate of the current market consensus, which is shared by the IMF. And inflation is forecast to reach only 33% in 2022, while many expect it to remain above 50%.
“Absent access to external markets and amid low domestic savings, a slower fiscal consolidation path implies higher monetary assistance and therefore higher inflation and wider financial imbalances in terms of the parallel-official FX gap,” Diego Pereira, chief economist for the Southern Cone & Peru at JPMorgan, said in a client note.
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