Lesufi’s election as ANC Gauteng chair boosts Ramaphosa’s second term bid – analysts

While analysts have described the election of Panyaza Lesufi as Gauteng ANC chair as yet another boost for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s chances of being re-elected party boss in the December elective conference, they have cautioned the ANC faces uphill battle to woo voter in the 2024 polls.

Lesufi’s first much-awaited media briefing as provincial chair – scheduled to be held at Luthuli House ANC headquarters Monday afternoon – was cancelled due to Eskom’s load shedding, which hit the entire downtown Joburg, according party national spokesperson Pule Mabe.

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In what went down as a tense and closely fought election, Lesufi bagged 575 votes compared to Lebogang Maile’s 543, with the provincial executive committee (PEC) top five members representing both political slates.

The elections yielded a gender mix and some surprises, which included:

• Nomantu Nkomo-Ralehoko, elected Lesufi’s deputy.
• Thembinkosi Nciza (Ekurhuleni), beating Thulani Kunene (Sedibeng) for the post of provincial secretary by securing 534 votes to Kunene’s 525.
• Tasneem Motara (Ekurhuleni), being elected Nciza’s deputy.
• Morokane Mosupyoe being elected treasurer.

Commenting on the outcome, University of SA political science Prof Dirk Kotze and University of Pretoria politics lecturer Roland Henwood agreed Lesufi was in Ramaphosa’s corner, but said he may not deliver Gauteng to the ANC in the upcoming national and provincial polls.

While Kotze said Lesufi’s election was “satisfying” for Ramaphosa, it did not mean he would attract voters for the ANC.

READ MORE: ANC Gauteng conference: Lesufi, Maile battle emphasises party’s ‘sharp divisions’

“What it means is that in the future, he will help to steer the province more towards Ramaphosa’s side.

“The December ANC national elective conference will be too soon to judge Lesufi. It is not a negative outcome for Ramaphosa, but he cannot take much out of it, as being an indication of firm support for him from Gauteng.

“It is a split vote – creating uncertainty on who will support who in December,” said Kotze.

“Whether this will translate into good voter prospects for the ANC in Gauteng, I am very much uncertain about it. I don’t think two years is enough to change the public perception about the party and its support.

“Given last year’s local government elections and the fact that there is a coloration between local and national elections, there is an uphill battle for the ANC ahead.”

Kotze said the results confirmed “what was predicted in terms of being close call – showing a mere 32-vote difference between the two candidates, who battled for the chair position”.

“It also shows that Gauteng is a 50-50 province, without a single group that can claim to be in a dominant position,” said Kotze.

Henwood said it seemed Lesufi would support Ramaphosa going forward.

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“Indications are Mr Maile will not unreservedly endorse a second term for Mr Ramaphosa – something that will put Gauteng at odds with other provinces who have already declared their positions … supporting Mr Ramaphosa for a second-term as president,” he said.

“Gauteng seems to be deeply divided, negatively impacting the number of votes for Ramaphosa in the December elective conference.”

Henwood said the ANC in Gauteng was “under immense pressure, as trends are negative indicating losing its majority in the province by 2024”.