Ultimately, this is a market that seems to be very noisy and unsure, as we have been grinding away in a symmetrical triangle for what seems like a lifetime. Keep in mind that there are a lot of external factors pointing in both directions, so it does make sense that we would continue to see this type of behavior.
As for a negative turn of events, I think you need to keep an eye on the fact that there is a lot of concern out there that the global economy is going to slow down. If that is going to be the case, then it is likely that we would see a lack of demand for crude oil, so you can make an argument for both directions at this point. The easiest way to trade this market is to simply trade price and follow with the market does, not what it “should do.
This has been a very strong move to the upside, but it has not necessarily broken out of an area that makes it anything that is tradable. If we were to break above the $110 level, then it would be an explosive move to the upside that was just waiting to be had.
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