Why New Zealand's volcano alerts aren't forecasts

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New Zealand's geological agency downgraded its 'alert level' for ...

WELLINGTON - New Zealand’s geological agency downgraded its “alert level” for the White Island volcano this week - at the same time its own scientists said another eruption similar to Monday’s deadly blast was increasingly likely.

At the time of Monday’s eruption, the Volcanic Alert Level was set at 2, around the middle of a six-step 0-5 scale used by GeoNet and signaling “moderate to heightened volcanic unrest” - not enough to stop regular tourist trips to the island. Geonet stresses on its website that the system “reflects the current state of the volcano and does not provide a forecast of future activity. An eruption may occur at any level.”

New Zealand’s largest city, Auckland, sits on a volcanic field made up of about 50 volcanic cones and craters that have erupted over the past 250,000 years. Some have daily tours. “So it is an unpredictable volcano,” she told Australian radio after announcing an inquiry into the tragedy and the wider volcano tourism industry. “Having said that, that’s not sufficient in terms of explanation as to whether or not the right checks and balances were in place.”

 

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