Why Did Republicans Outperform The Polls Again? Two Theories.

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Why are some Republican voters more reluctant to take surveys? FiveThirtyEight explores:

in an online survey of registered voters that Republicans were about twice as likely as Democrats to say they would probably or definitely not share their true voting intentions for president with a pollster in a telephone poll.

But why are these Republicans resistant to telling pollsters their true preferences? They’re likely afraid their opinions might get out, even though polls are conducted confidentially. In the aforementioned study, thewho admitted being unlikely to tell pollsters who they were voting for were asked why that was the case. As one respondent put it, “I don’t believe the information would be confidential and I think it’s dangerous to express an opinion outside of the current liberal viewpoint.

Another said, “I would not give my real opinion for fear of reprisal if someone found out.” These quotes are not just cherry-picked either. The researchers categorized all the open-ended responses and identified six primary reasons why respondents wanted to keep their opinions private, and four of those six reasons involved a fear that one’s political opinion could be traced back to them and prove harmful. Republicans considerably outnumbered Democrats in these fears.

It’s possible, of course, that this second theory of mine isn’t telling the whole story either. It may be that two separate phenomena are occurring simultaneously. Perhaps a sliver of college-educated affluent suburban Republican voters are reluctant to express their views with pollsters, as was detected by Public Opinion Strategies, OnMessage and Morning Consult. And it’s possible that this group is entirely different from another set of low-trust Republican voters who refuse to take surveys.

Nevertheless, this second theory does help explain, in part, why Republicans did better than expected in more affluent suburban House districts. Most Republican incumbents in suburban districts

 

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FiveThirtyEight Need your help covering this story! My friends life depends on it please cover his trial this month in San Bernardino!!! Please contact me for more info. Mark geragos and Alexandra Kazarian is defending him! Please help save a life and bring light to injustice

FiveThirtyEight Because they are bright enough not to waste their time and because they have jobs, families and responsibilities.

FiveThirtyEight Because they live in an alternate orange universe and they are not allowed to say anything without prior orange approval!! Either that or they can't read!!

FiveThirtyEight They can't read the survey that's why they don't take it.

FiveThirtyEight Because the media polls in areas to get the results that they want to see in print.. what's the point?

FiveThirtyEight This is the same media asking why, when they spent a year ignoring and propping up Mario Cuomo all year and now destroying him. Liberal media look nowhere else but the mirror

FiveThirtyEight Considering the atmosphere the mainstream media created over the last few years why would they? Anyone who doesn't vote Democrat is now evil and racist based on a narrative you and other networks cant stop pushing. Look at your own reporting and start there

FiveThirtyEight Because screw you, that’s why!

FiveThirtyEight It's not easy to admit you're on the bad side.

FiveThirtyEight My guess they lie. second guess there to ashamed to admit who there voting for.

FiveThirtyEight Because literally everything is a 'liberal conspiracy.'

FiveThirtyEight Because it's becoming increasingly embarrassing for anyone to admit being a republican or planning to vote for a racist

FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight Why should anyone be forced to take polls that are used to skew the facts? I have no idea if any poll was processed in good faith. They are used to press a narrative.

FiveThirtyEight A more honed natural aversion to nosy busybodies?

FiveThirtyEight Probably because they don't understand words. Remember...49% of EVERYONE are/is below average. And Average 100 IQ is pretty bad! (I blew a 137) ;) Face it, Humanity is REALLY stupid! Look at Trump voters for proof!

FiveThirtyEight Or it could just be that the news networks don't want to release the real pulling information to make their audience happier for more ratings and more money.

FiveThirtyEight Does it change anything?

FiveThirtyEight Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups. — George Carlin

FiveThirtyEight Are they real?

FiveThirtyEight this is terrible news

FiveThirtyEight Because The Polls Themselves Are Fake News 🙄

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