What is the “3.5% rule” beloved of climate protesters?

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When it comes to protests 3.5% is an important indicator. The Economist explains why

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, a global environmental movement that specialises in disruptive protests. According to XR’s website it needs “the involvement of 3.5% of the population” if it is to succeed in achieving its aims. They are still some way off: in Britain that would amount to around 2m people. The “3.5% rule” comes from Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard, who found it was a useful predictor of a protest’s success.

It is not always that simple. In 2019, some 2m Hong Kongers—more than a third of the city's population—took part in a demonstration against plans to bolster extraditions to mainland China. In the years since, the clampdown by Hong Kong’s authorities has. There are caveats too. Non-violence tends to work better than violence. Ms Chenoweth’s research showed that serious political change occurred 53% of the time after peaceful protest compared with 26% after violent protest.

That augurs well for climate protesters, who are often disruptive but rarely violent. But the 3.5% rule may not be compatible with their demands. Ms Chenoweth’s research accounts only for “maximalist” movements with clear goals such as regime change or territorial independence. The demands of climate activists, by contrast, are often vague. XR’s website lists the group’s three main demands of world governments: “Tell the truth”, “Act now” and “Go beyond politics”.

That does not make climate protests useless if they fail the 3.5% test. After the climate demonstrations in 2019, internet searches for “climate change” surged worldwide. Public awareness makes politicians pay attention. And smaller, more extreme protests may act as a “radical flank” that increases the political leverage of moderates, who are seen as a more palatable alternative by lawmakers. XR and other environmental movements may see the 3.

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