What do emerging global death patterns reveal about the UK?

These numbers start to tell a story about a deathly pandemic wave that hit broadly similar countries in very different ways. Some of the clues in the comparative numbers are not just interesting - they are vital to help identify how to deal with the ongoing challenge of this new virus.

"The mortality data are pretty robust, and now that we have a good period of at least 11 weeks over which we can make these comparisons, they are really worth making, and it's also very timely", says Professor John Muellbauer, an Oxford University economist and co-author ofThe most fundamental question about the number of UK deaths, specifically from the coronavirus, and more broadly during the pandemic period, is whether it was inevitable there would be more than 50,000...

Some of this might be down to population structure, and the general health of the population. A London effect, of having a densely populated global mega-city, is clearly important, but these comparisons factor some of that in. Even when you take into account the fact that both England and the UK have younger populations than Spain, our death figures still come out as bad or worse, according to the independent charity, the Health Foundation.

Furthermore, when it comes to excess deaths, the UK has recorded 97 per 100,000 population, while Italy has seen 75. Some of the differences between the UK and Italy could be down to the size of London. It's three times bigger than comparable cities in Italy, and also one of the world's busiest hubs for international travel. Also, Italy had at least two different epidemics: a northern one centred around Milan and Bergamo which was severe, and a milder one in the south of Italy and elsewhere.

The decision in mid-March and early April to discharge thousands of patients from hospitals directly into care homes, even if they might have had the virus, inadvertently took this geographically widespread virus deep into the most vulnerable part of each of these communities.

That UK govnt is truly incompetent

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