Bonds, Us Federal Reserve, Derivatives, Market Reports, Central Banks / Central Bank Events, Interest Rates / Policy, Economic Output, National Government Debt, Graphics, Debt / Fixed Income Markets, Reports

Bonds, Us Federal Reserve

U.S. yield curve inverts for first time in 12 years, flags recession

U.S. yield curve inverts for first time in 12 years, flags recession

14.8.2019

U.S. yield curve inverts for first time in 12 years, flags recession

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted on Wednesday for the first time since Jun...

FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., August 12, 2019. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz

The U.S. curve inverted on Wednesday to as much as minus 2.1 basis points US2US10=TWEB, a metric widely viewed as a classic recession signal. The last time this yield curve inverted was in June 2007 when the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was gathering pace.

Jeffrey Cleveland, principal and chief economist at investment management firm Payden & Rygel in Los Angeles, said he is more optimistic about the timeline for a recession.

“I don’t think we have seen the bottom in yields yet as we continue on this path of just absolute increased uncertainty,” said Ellis Phifer, market strategist at Raymond James in Memphis. “I think potentially the bottom could be the 1.30%-1.35% in the 10-year.”

While the yield on nominal 30-year bonds had not yet broken below 2% for the first time ever, Treasury futures market signals indicated an expectation that it would do so soon. The implied yield on the 30-year Treasury futures contract expiring in September USU9 was 1.74% on Wednesday, near a record low.

That metric reverted back and then inverted again in May. Over that period, the 2- to 10-year curve did not invert.

(This story has been refiled to correct typographic error in 4th paragraph to make RIC for yield curve US2US10=TWEB instead of US2US10YT=TWEB)

Read more: Reuters Top News
Breaking News
Latest news right now
• • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • • 

Thank you Mr Art of the Deal! Just like your other investments, time to file for bankruptcy. Take the booming economy that was left to you and screw it up. POTUS maxkeiser stacyherbert KeiserReport Entering The Trump Recession. Yay. LOL- Do you just repeat what CNN and NBCNews says? They have both stated they want to economy to tank, so realDonaldTrump will not be reelected, but the economy is strong, the markets are manipulated by a powerful few.... Reuters has become the CNN of failed news!

Is this the beginning of the end for MAGA? NationalSocialism lasted longer. Trump effect......f'd up all of OB good work Trump is destroying the economy! winning MAGA Yes,..and if Trump farts the market reacts,.

These 12 Disney World Restaurants are the Perfect Places to Feed Your Hangry FamilyTaking your kids to Walt Disney World can be a huge undertaking, from planning FastPass+ reservations to choosing a hotel, not to mention figuring out where

Most American's Can't Identify 12 Of These Food Logos — Can You?How close have you really been paying attention? ummm aldis snackrite x more importantly, why should we ? Y’all gonna make me prove to you how fat I actually am

Stories
Top news stories of the day
 • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • •

12 Pairs of Fancy-Looking Sunglasses for Under $30These may not hold up as well as a $250 pair, but for $10, you won’t feel a pit of shame if they accidentally get crushed

12 Cozy Slippers That Will Encourage You to Stay InsideThese thongs are like the slippers you get at a fancy spa, but better.

Stories
Top news stories of the day
 • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • •

These Are the 12 Snacks You Need to Keep in Your Dorm RoomLate nights call for good snacks.

United Airlines to pilots: No drinking 12 hours before workSounds like Nazi Germany to me. 8 hours is plenty! I'm sorry, but shouldn't this be a given? They had to make a rule? A policy assumed to be in place at the dawn of commercial flight

Write Comment

Thank you for your comment.
Please try again later.

Latest News

News

14 August 2019, Wednesday News

Previous news

Harry Styles Has Officially Passed On Playing Prince Eric, And Twitter Is Hilariously Peeved

Next news

Explainer: Is it too late to hold an election before Brexit? Yes, probably
Harry Styles Has Officially Passed On Playing Prince Eric, And Twitter Is Hilariously Peeved Explainer: Is it too late to hold an election before Brexit? Yes, probably