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Trump's trade threats increased the chances for a recession, but also a Fed rate cut

Trump's trade threats increased the chances for a recession, but also a Fed rate cut

23.8.2019

Trump's trade threats increased the chances for a recession, but also a Fed rate cut

The latest escalation in the trade war ups the odds the economy will fall into recession and that the Fed will aggressively cut rates.

inverted yield curve, where investors look for more yield on shorter term securities, has been a fairly reliable recession warning. "These are risk-off moments that we think do mean more tightening in financial conditions and increases in spikes and volatility, that tend to be unhelpful for the outlook," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays. "It raises the amount of insurance the Fed needs to put into place to support the economy." Gapen said Powell indicated he could do more easing when he spoke Friday, and that there were more risks since the Fed met in July, including the protests in Hong Kong and risks around Italian politics. But the overriding concern he mentioned was trade uncertainties. "I think the Fed was prepared to ease in September. This locks that in. I suppose if things deteriorate enough, we start asking do they do 50 basis points instead of 25," said Gapen. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said the tensions are now at a heightened level, creating an even more uncertain level for markets. "It's almost like the administration was expecting the Fed to announce a rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting. And since Powell did not deliver, he went to def-com 5, " said Hogan. Historically, the Fed does not act at its annual Jackson Hole retreat. Gapen said the trade war is hurting global trade revenues. For the U.S., exports make up about 15% of GDP, but for other countries, the contribution is about twice as much. Trade issues are hitting economies globally, and Germany, for instance, has seen a modest contraction in growth while the U.S. is still growing at about 2%. "The risk is it gives you the illusion the U.S. economy will do fine," said Gapen, adding that there' s a question of how long the U.S. can avoid also seeing a downturn. Citigroup global economist Cesar Rojas said it's possible Trump's tweet threats could be a precursor to a much more intense phase of the trade wars, which would be even more damaging to both economies. "To me that sounds like he will eventually announce that tariffs on China will be increased and companies will perhaps have six months, or a year, before these tariffs go up to these levels, or even that trade with China is blocked," said Rojas. Economists said the Chinese tariffs and Trump's comments on Twitter raise the level of uncertainty for U.S.businesses, which already have curbed spending. "I think businesses are already on the edge," Zandi said. "If the president pushes this, they'll go over the edge. It will be too much to bear. They are right now sitting on their hands. But if the president goes much further, they're going to start cutting, and laying off workers. That's recession. Manufacturers are already in recession." On Thursday, the IHS Markit Purchasing Managers Index showed that the U.S. manufacturing sector was in contraction in July, for the first time since the financial crisis. A weakening in services PMI showed that the manufacturing downturn may be spreading, but service PMI remained above 50, which means expansion.. Zandi said Moody's Analytics has an indicator for daily recession odds based on financial inputs, like credit spreads, stock volatility. The indicator shows a 45% chance of recession in the next 12 months. That includes yield curve metrics so it rose, as the curve inverted this week. "What we're seeing right now is it's going to hurt both economies," said Rojas. "Basically, the extent of where we are in the U.S. economy is that external factors are already weighing on manufacturing and agriculture," said Rojas. He said the manufacturing PMI confirmed that the U.S. will become more sensitive to tariffs and trade wars. Related Tags Read more: CNBC

cnbc doing their best for crowd control 😂 rate cuts won't help now, Trump fucked up

Powell says Fed will aid economy, but Trump escalates attackFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled Friday that the Fed stands ready to cut interest rates further if the economy needs it but wasn&39;t clear about when or by how much. Powell had barely finished speaking to central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, before President Donald Trump escalated

Trump tweets: 'Who is our bigger enemy,' Fed Chairman Powell or Chinese President Xi?President Donald Trump on Friday again ripped into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, comparing him to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Well, you appointed one of them, Mr. Best People. The Tweeter hisownself Completely panicking

As Trump Calls for Cuts, Powell Stresses Limits of Fed PolicyThe Federal Reserve chief, Jerome Powell, left the door open to further rate cuts, but said President Trump's trade policies posed risks to the economic outlook He left the door open to more intimidation and attempts to crush their independence Stay tuned for angry unhinged tweets.

Trump slams Fed chief: 'Who is our biggest enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?'Trump's blistering tweets came after Powell, whom the president hand-picked as Federal Reserve chairman last year, spoke at an economic conference. Trump is the enemy. I thought Trump said Xi was a great guy. Now he’s the enemy? This is what happens when a pestilential child, realDonaldTrump meets with a strident, proven, knowledgeable professional, who’s driven by facts, history, and data points.

Trump: Is Fed Chairman ‘Bigger Enemy’ Than Xi Jingping?The president is unhappy with the Fed’s decision to maintain the status quo. The human body is made up of 30 Trillion cells. Each cell is trusted to do it's job and is not judged on the job it does...just that it does it well. When a group of cells believe themselves to be superior...that causes a problem...that is known as CANCER. No one of them, only enemy is realDonaldTrump 🤣 if i was the fed .I abandon his ass and let the water fall begin you would be rid of him so fast.STOP YOUR Market manipulation. Let the chips fall were they will .the market would head down so fast without support he want to fire all yall. his dumb self.

Trump slams Fed chief: 'Who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?'President Trump slams Fed chief: 'Who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?' (Correction: Bigger, not biggest) Future meetings together are gonna be ... awkward. i know the answer! Trump is our biggest enemy. How does Trump get away with manipulating the stock market by making announcements that cause sudden profound drops when the market is open? Does he have someone buying stock for him since he manipulates the market!



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