Note that the models are reasonably similar to one another. However, there are some differences. Namely, the predictions are more sensitive to economic performance when we use data for elected incumbents only . That means incumbents like Trump get a larger share of credit or blame when they’re managing the economy, rather than when the torch is being passed, such as between Clinton and Al Gore in 2000 or George W. Bush and John McCain in 2008.
First, the Electoral College. In 2016, there was roughly a 3-point gap between Trump’s performance in the popular vote, which he lost by 2 percentage points to Hillary Clinton, and in the, Wisconsin, which he won by about 1 point. Losing the popular vote by 4 to 6 points would probably not be enough to save Trump in the Electoral College, but it would at least be an open question.
Do models built on ordinary business cycle crests and slumps work in the midst of a global pandemic — something that the U.S. hasn’t experienced in any recent election year? At the same time, there are some objections that I don’t necessarily find compelling. Each of these could make for its own article, and we may cover some of them at more length later. But let’s run through them quickly in a lighting round:Maybe.
NateSilver538 Ah, 60% last time I checked, doesn’t seem “Slightly “ to me. Fake news head lines as usual.
NateSilver538 The Great Againg America can't live on QE, by printing more greenbacks for survival. It's totally absurd to do so to uphold a great nation. Zimbabwe is a blind alley, does America want to follow suit ?
NateSilver538 Keep throwing that shade
NateSilver538 I’ll gladly rally around the flag, but certainly won’t be inclined at all to rally around him.
NateSilver538 If trump gave a shit he would be out in our communities. Or at least cut a check for a food pantry’s. Has no philanthropic areas to support. None none none. Me me me
NateSilver538 People you voted for this monster, he could care less about you. He works on how and when he can siphon money from our country for himself. I literally have a visceral reaction from the sound of his voice or the word (Trump). He should be banned from our country, for ever!
NateSilver538 According to one source, the top tier of Americans (0.1 percent) own about the same wealth as 90 percent of America. This admin is shaking apples from the wrong tree. Not a rally 'round the flag for most Americans. Rally around those who put their lives on the line everyday.
NateSilver538 2020 wifi see the Dems squashed like a roach under a boot.
NateSilver538 at this point is about coronavirus but how he is handling he's not going going to make it for the sake of all of us.
NateSilver538 his approval went to 60 percent while the medias ratings have gone to the bottom. The people and Who are happy with how the president has handle the virus. Your lies are not working any longer the people only listen to the president not the left wing news
NateSilver538 It’s not the virus that’s raising his approval rating. It’s bias media articles like this against him that’s raising his approval rating. Y’all are going to get that dude re-elected if you don’t change your strategy.
NateSilver538 Who did he pay to fudge the numbers?
NateSilver538 Funny how we'll cover things like this, but ignore the recent allegations coming out against dem front runner Joe Biden... For the love of all that is good, cover Tara Reade's story, you are only perpetuating the people's disbelief of MSM by covering this up
NateSilver538 You think Biden, who doesn’t know where he is can do better
NateSilver538 how could it improve in the face of his gross incompetence?
NateSilver538
NateSilver538 Trump's approval ratings are fixed. Ignoring the 5% or so who don't care, approval / disapproval runs at 45% / 55%. Yeah, he's up for now, presidents are elevated in a crisis. The government is doing the right things -- forget the lack of planning & empty-headed comments.
NateSilver538 The economy is doing great. TrumpVirus2020 has done the best job, ever. O yea! TrumpVirus2020 is good for the economy.
NateSilver538 I’d like to take our flag and shove it so far up his backside…
NateSilver538 Not true. Trump has mishandled this from the very begining. I don't know who these numbers are counting, but they're not true. The majority of citizens see Trump for what he really is -- a failure.
NateSilver538
NateSilver538 Historically his gains are miniscule when the Nation is in crisis
NateSilver538
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