There’s never a boring day for a medical ethicist. How could there be? So many of the issues are a matter of life and death. But COVID-19 is throwing so much at Dr. Arthur Caplan, it’s hard to imagine how he can possibly turn it off at night.
“The conversations have definitely gotten intense,” the doctor allowed. And he isn’t sugarcoating any of it. As for all the cheery hype about successful clinical trials? “The data that’s been out so far is what we call first-in-human tests,” he said. “It means nothing. Going from first-in-human positive results to getting a vaccine approved, the failure rate must be 85%.”
Caplan and his NYU colleagues worked hard in the spring drafting a policy for rationing ventilators and other medical equipment. “We never got to rationing in New York except for one hospital,” Elmhurst in Queens, he noted. “We managed to stretch and avoid it.” But the plan is there if and when it’s needed, perhaps as early as this fall. “You try to save the most lives and try to save quality of life,” he said.
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