The current crisis has laid bare the vulnerabilities of countries like Britain and Italy, which rely heavily on imported gas. The United Kingdom could try to avert future problems by speeding up its plans to quadruple offshore wind generating capacity by 2030. But the latest crunch was exacerbated by a period of low wind speeds. Increasing gas storage would be a retrograde step, while developing new ways to store electricity will take time.
An alternative approach is to focus on reducing demand. According to the International Energy Agency, population and economic growth means the world could require well over 600 exajoules of energy by 2050. That’s equivalent to 14 billion tonnes of oil, and a hefty increase from the 412 EJ the planet consumed in 2020. Even with vast construction of wind turbines and solar panels, it implies continued use of fossil fuels.
That’s where energy efficiency comes in. The IEA calculates that to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2050, total energy consumption will have to shrink to 344 EJ. The lion’s share of this near-halving of demand can be achieved by making manufacturing plants, vehicles and in particular buildings use less energy. The single biggest chunk of the reduction is retrofitting buildings, for example by replacing gas boilers with electric heat pumps.
None of these measures will ease the current gas panic. But quick action would at least start to prevent future squeezes. As the IEA points out, improving efficiency is the best way to improve energy security.
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