Institutional investors — including managers at pension funds and insurance companies — piled on long positions infutures from late-June through mid-July, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. This occurred as stocks marched to all-time highs in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cut on July 31.
The chart below clearly shows why she's concerned: net-long positions in stock futures peaked at a level consistent with the tops reached right around the pre-financial-crisis high, and before the sell-offs in January and September last year. Investors have pared some of their bullish bets over the past two weeks, given the flare-up of recession fears and the marketwide flight to bonds that inverted the yield curve. A further unwinding that tanks the S&P 500 to 2,725 would represent a 10% drawdown from its all-time high, for starters.
The news last week that President Donald Trump delayed the latest tariffs on Chinese imports until December was welcomed on Wall Street, as it eased concerns over third- and fourth-quarter earnings. But according to Calvasina, the news did little to improve the outlook for 2020 earnings.
This “reporting” is shamefull. Stop it!
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