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Article_Opinion, Election2020

The economy benefited from a lot of good luck in Trump’s first three years, but the luck has run out

Trump promised he'd fix the economy that had left many of his supporters behind, but his signature polices have failed to address the rot in the middle of...

9/29/2020 9:33:00 AM

OPINION: Trump’s economy was the product of good luck, not good policies. He desperately needs to take credit for the economy, because he doesn’t have any other positive accomplishments to tout and has failed the American people, RexNutting writes.

Trump promised he'd fix the economy that had left many of his supporters behind, but his signature polices have failed to address the rot in the middle of...

Trump had the wonderful fortune to take office during a period of great economic stability. Job growth was strong, GDP growth was above potential, and inflation was low. Trump’s luck held for three years. The economy was good, but not great, as we shall see.

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“ Getting the unemployment rate down to 3.5% wasn’t Trump’s achievement or Obama’s—it was the work of the Fed, of Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell. Even more, it was the accomplishment of the American people. ”And then misfortune struck—the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump was faced with the first real test of his leadership and he failed. The U.S. response to the coronavirus has been among the worst in the world. Tens of thousands have died because Trump denied the most serious threat to public health in decades.

Opinion: Why Donald Trump is a terrible leaderTrump says he created the greatest economy in history before the pandemic hit, but it’s just not so. Presidents don’t build economies, the American people do.None of Trump’s policies transformed the U.S. economy in any long-lasting way. The tax cut gave the economy a brief jolt, and his trade wars have been a complete flop.

Too busy celebrating The economy is in awful shape right now, but Trump won’t acknowledge it. He and his supporters are touting the 10.6 million jobs that have been created since May, but they ignore the 20.5 million who want to work but can’t, the 7.5 million part-timers who want to work full time, and the 1.4 million who file for unemployment benefits each and every week.

Millions are suffering but the Trump campaign is too busy celebrating to hear. Trump has forgotten the words he spoke in his inaugural address: “I will fight for you with every breath in my body—and I will never, ever let you down.”If you are sick, or out of work, or have lost your business or a loved one, Trump has let you down.

The celebrating is only going to get louder. We all know that on Oct. 29 he’ll be patting himself on the back for the huge quarter-on-quarter rebound (maybe an annualized 30%!) in gross domestic product that will be reported for the third quarter on that day, just five days before Election Day.

He won’t, however, mention that GDP is still far below where it was at the beginning of the year, before he botched the COVID-19 crisis, nor will he mention that large portions of the economy—including Trump’s own businesses—will never fully recover until the coronavirus is beaten back.

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Exposed the rot The pandemic exposed the rot in the U.S. economy for all to see. As has been the case for decades, those who have wealth or education or privilege are doing fine, for the most part. With a few exceptions, the pandemic has been nuisance, but not a catastrophe.

Not so for millions of their fellow Americans. Those who aren’t so lucky or privileged are scrambling to keep a roof over their heads, to put food on the table, to survive on the crumbs they get from unemployment, or to force themselves to physically go into their workplaces, hoping they won’t get sick or infect their customers, co-workers, friends and family.

The recovery isn’t V-shaped, or L-shaped, but K-shaped, with half of the country doing well and the other half falling. The stock market DJIA, +1.50% has hit record highs while millions of people are unemployed with few prospects. Home sales are soaring while millions cannot pay their rent, or afford food. Millions have lost their health insurance amid a great public health crisis.

For half of America, the economy is still terrible.Trump and the Republican Party have turned their backs on those who are hurting, because to acknowledge their plight would be to admit that Trump has been lying all along about how the coronavirus would just disappear.

Opinion: Audaciously, Trump is running for re-election as the Hero of the Coronavirus WarWhat makes an economy ‘great’? We need to ask ourselves what we mean when we say the economy is great. My answer is that a great economy must work for everyone. It isn’t enough that billionaires are richer than ever.

The greatest economy in history ought to be better than what we’ve settled for. It ought to deliver the things that matter to people: A sense of security and opportunity, access to good education and good health care and a healthy environment. By this standard, our economy isn’t the best, not even close. The U.S. has fallen to 28th place in the world on these quality-of-life metrics.

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The greatest economy ever would keep people safe from disease and violence and homelessness. The greatest economy in history wouldn’t have an epidemic of “deaths of despair.”Anne Case and Angus Deaton: The United States of Despair is gripped by two simultaneous pandemics that expose a widening inequality gap

The greatest economy in history would share the bounty with those who do the work, not just those who provide the capital. It wouldn’t let 1% of the households (around three million people) claim a third of the nation’s wealth, more wealth than 200 million working-class and middle-class Americans have combined. Almost 40 years ago, they were promised that the good things would trickle down to them. They are still waiting.

The greatest economy in history wouldn’t require the support of massive fiscal deficits and extremely low real interest rates.The greatest economy in history wouldn’t judge itself by a stock market SPX, +1.61% whose gains accrue almost exclusively to the richest 10% of families and which reflect in large measure the fortunes of just six companies—Facebook FB, +0.78%, Apple AAPL, +2.38%, Amazon AMZN, +2.55%, Google GOOG, +1.35% GOOGL, +1.36%, Microsoft MSFT, +0.78% and Netflix NFLX, +1.60% —that employ relatively few workers.

A great economy wouldn’t have stagnant wages—the real wages of men working full time are no larger than they were in 1973. The middle class used to get more than half of the nation’s income. Now, the top 20% of households gets more than half.The greatest economy wouldn’t tell people who drive for Uber or deliver groceries and takeout food that they are “entrepreneurs,” when really they have no hope of building a future on the $10 an hour they clear.

Trump and his voters knew the economy wasn’t great Trump knew all these things in 2016. He felt in his gut that the economic recovery under Barack Obama was incomplete, that many of Americans were dissatisfied with the economy and their own prospects. It wasn’t just a culture war that his voters wanted—although, in the end, that’s all they got.

Trump promised to fix it all. In fact, he said he was the only one who could fix it. He didn’t fix it. But he thinks that if he just repeats the lie often enough, his supporters will believe that he did.I’ve long been skeptical that presidents have much impact on the short-run performance of the economy, unless they really screw it up, as Trump has done the past eight months. Fine-tuning the economy in the short run is the job of the Federal Reserve.

Opinion: Why presidents shouldn’t get credit or blame for the economyPresidents generally make their mark with long-term investments or structural changes that will bear fruit over a period of decades.Think of Lincoln and the Homestead Act and the Transcontinental Railroad. Or FDR with Social Security and bank regulation, or Eisenhower with interstate highways. Carter, Reagan and Clinton deregulated many industries, while the space program and Cold War spending of the 1950s, ’60s and ’70s under Ike, JFK, LBJ and Nixon gave birth to most of the information and communication technologies that are still being mined today. Obama had the Affordable Care Act and investments in green technologies (think Tesla TSLA, +3.40% ) that are beginning to pay off.

What is Trump’s signature policy move that is going to structurally change the U.S. economy for decades to come? There isn’t one.He talked about building and repairing infrastructure, but the self-proclaimed greatest deal maker in history never even tried. His efforts at deregulation have weakened labor, health, safety and environmental protections that benefit our economy much more than they cost. He hasn’t even attempted to articulate what his agenda for a second term would be.

Trump’s failures Trump’s first (and, with any luck, his last) term will be known for two policies: The quixotic trade wars and the massive tax giveaway to corporations and the super rich.The trade war was a disaster. It accomplished little beyond weakening economies around the world as global trade flows shrank. It amounted to a large tax increase on American consumers and producers. Few jobs were created, despite his promise to “bring back all the jobs.”

And the tax cut? It didn’t transform the economy by giving U.S. companies strong incentives to invest in America.Instead of being the promised supply-side boost to productivity and investment, the tax cut served only as a brief jolt of Keynesian sugar for the economy. It boosted consumption, not investment. That consumption created some extra jobs, but the job growth slowed again as the stimulus faded, forcing the Fed to cut rates again to keep it going.

Getting the unemployment rate down to 3.5% wasn’t Trump’s achievement or Obama’s—it was the work of the Fed, of Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell. Even more, it was the accomplishment of the American people, who went to work every day and paid down their debts every month. They painstakingly rebuilt a ravaged economy over 10 years, only to have the guy who just showed up in the corner office take all the credit.

“ “There is no limit to the amount of good you can do if you don’t care who gets the credit.” ” Read more: MarketWatch »

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A sad reflection on America that it’s people can only drag up such an unprofessional as president! Look at Canada and 1/5 population and they have a young professional hand at the wheel! Is this the start of the great USA downfall long predicted! 'Good luck'?! Incredible MW! Millions of people working, thinking, toilling is 'luck'! You have lost your leftist minds!

Son sorry but we believe in analytics here . Sounds like this was written be a day trader with his head is his ass 😀👍 Fact: realDonaldTrump beating CrookedHillary was the BEST LUCK for Americans... Trump2020 MAGA2020 DemocratsHateAmerica DemocratsAreCorrupt DemocratsCheat I’d not fully agree with this. Think he did a pretty good job with demonstrating to China that Trading hegemony couldn’t last forever. Liked that he doesn’t compromise and get engaged in endless small talks but get things done which is not usual for politicians.

No it benefited from resuscitating the manufacturing sector, replacing dumb and harmful trade agreement and from safeguarding the local market against chinese, government subsidized competition destroying local business- all of which buoyed confidence and drove the stock markets. Someone sounds bought, biased, and has 0 hard evidence. Before y’all start harping on me, IM A DEMOCRAT, however I posses independent thought and come to my own opinions.

😂 Who writes this nonsense ? Stardusty0407 How much did you guys get paid to be part of the Democrat propaganda blitz today? And who paid? Was it actually Dems or was it Never Trumpers? Good luck? Democratic policies stopped an economic collapse and set in motion the longest continual string of job gains in our history. There wasn’t a mass sell off due to the huge tax give away to the rich only because of massive stock buybacks. Wasn’t luck.

such a shitty piece writing about 'luck' on an economy... is the writer an astrologer or what? It’s hilarious that I can’t even follow a fucking market watch account on twitter without them being completely politcal and false. If systemic racism is a problem then the party that control the education system, the media, Hollywood, and all the major systems are to blame

Trump had benefitted from the great job the Obama Presidency and Fed Reserve had invested in from 2009 to 2016. Like fruit trees, the economy takes a while to provide the fruits of policies. Trump has no single achievement to claim credit for. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂🤦🏼‍♂️

How can you seriously continuously only rail Trump... if you have any one job it’s to.. watch the.. market Which has been his shining star. Just keep giving us Jim Gaffigan’s opinion until the end of time I guess. Lowest black and Hispanic and in general unemployment ever. 👉 If Trumps economy was good luck then so was Obama’s.

Lies. Obviously based on the way he runs his businesses.... I would say we are seeing the effects of his leadership this year as we are resembling his failed business efforts. MarketWatch pushing the anti-Trump propaganda. MarketWatch is Pravda. So then Obama’s dismal performance was bad luck instead of liberal ineptitude and regulatory strangulation? LibsAreUseless

Lol. Ridic. You guys have become a laughingstock. My god please stop the TDS, I follow you for market news. How about the peace in the Middle East? No more ISIS, no NK nuke tests, stopping human trafficking, and the list goes on and on and on Trump2020 Get ready for more for 4 more years of “good luck”

Of course...you would never give any actual credit to POTUS Problem is Trumpism is a racist religious cult so it doesn't matter to cultist What a piece of crap news report this is! Stop with the fake news! where did they dig this RexNutting clown up? the guy is so blinded by his TDS that he can't even recognize the accomplishments going on around him daily. is crap

Total bullshit. Trump loosening all stranglehold regulations on Corporate America and cutting income taxes is called luck ? Good Luck 🍀 or Not a career politician who’s bought or bribed? MarketWatch is really scraping the bottom of the barrel with this one. Rex has an opinion. It is fraught with inaccuracies. Thanks for sharing. MarketWatch has become the VIEW of financial publications. Devoid of value.

Vinks_O_7 How people can look at the facts and think Trump has been anything other than the worse president in modern American history, and possibly the worst ever, is beyond me! But then again, a non-trivial percentage of the population still believe the earth is flat. When all else fails - luck. Seriously can’t give a man credit where it’s due. It’s that hard?

Lol, yeah right, Karen. 😝 MarketWatch is complete garbage I suppose negotiating the peace in the mid east was a product of good luck as well? kenjeong How is this an opinion? This is correct Opinion: wasn’t a good luck still a bless. 🇺🇸 opinion was wrong. Not that feedback to anyone at MarketWatch will make a difference but your pieces would begin to have credibility if just 1/10 were favorable to Trump. Til then, propaganda.

Lowest unemployment in 50 years, lowest black unemployment in history, slashing isis, countless amazing peace treaties all over the world, best economy in a really long time... that's a whooole lot of luck Trump was called a racist for closing the border, we know the timeline. Just stop lying. Yeah, only luck.... lmao

👎 trump failures then are just bad luck.. He's the only president during the globalization era to ever stand up to China. For that alone he deserves to be president for four more terms. If you didn’t appreciate the trump tax you received , then return the extra money you got back to the IRS , Ahole !!!!!

This guy is clearly a MorOn lol, yes we all know from the media, anything positive that happens under Trump is pure luck, thx for the reminder Wonder if it's also true for Super Bowl winning coaches? Just luck...? And if you're coaching a World Series championship team, luck also. If an olympic athlete medals, there too, those coaches lucked into it.

Good luck? Hahahaha. Yeah, ok. “Opinion” is right. Rex Nutting is a nut with Trump Derangement Syndrome. Everything he writes is absolute BS. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOL. I printed this story so i could wipe my dog's ass with it. Trump has the best policy and is the best president since Lincoln. “Opinion”

All his successes are good luck and failures are bad policies.

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Democrats say Republicans will pay price at polls for confirming Barrett before electionSenior congressional Democrats on Sunday warned that Senate Republicans will pay a price for rushing to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court before Election Day Hahaha Don't think so! fakenews The HYPOCRICY, in the democrat’s argument about Merrick Garland & dem’s actual disrespect for Americans, is that the PEOPLE INCREASED the rep SENATE MAJORITY & ELECTED a rep POTUS in 2016, which eviscerates their argument of the people deciding - We already have. Our entire country is paying a steep price for this. Vote in November. Put some adults back in charge.