The average hurricane season is officially more intense

A new decade’s worth of hurricane data is in, and the revised average season is predicted to be longer and have more storms than before. Previously, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes . But the new data, which covers from 1991 to 2020, adds two more named storms and one more hurricane to that list.

Though you might think that increase could come simply from better technology, that’s not actually the case. The explanation, as with many other worrying weather patterns, is global warming. “We have a lot of confidence that climate change is causing warmer sea surface temperatures,” says Dereka Caroll-Smith, a research meteorologist for the National Institutes of Standards and Technology. “And the fuel for hurricanes is warm sea surface temperature.”

“It’s still pretty early. So it could still go either way,” Bruyère says. “Right about this time, in 2020, we had a similar prediction as what we have right now for 2021. Then, later in the year, the [number of predicted hurricanes] were increased, because La Niña intensified.”

Oceans have been on the cool down for some time now 🤣 good ol fear mongering at its finest

I seem to recall that exact same prediction in 2005 which was followed by.... way fewer than the normal number of hurricanes for more than a decade. Acknowledging past failures would increase trust in 'Science.' But... fearmongering does sell subscriptions.

Some of its wrath

You too eh?

Hurricanes are stochastic and every attempt to predict hurricane frequency has failed miserably. NOAA has been doing this BS for years and few call them out for this. On average there are 6-8 Atlantic hurricanes.

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