Take Five: The second half

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Australia’s central bank is set to raise rates, with markets expecting a half percentage point increase. Here’s what to watch in the world of business and finance over the week to July 8

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Central banks are front and centre elsewhere, too. The ECB kicks off its bond reinvestment scheme to shield southern Europe's fragile economies; emerging markets' policy-tightening spree will continue; and in Australia, a half-point rate rise is expected.

It's hard to say how long the feel-good effect will last; Citi analysts say the spread-tightening is overdone, and markets have priced already 50 billion euros in bond reinvestments. The test starts now.U.S. data have recently provided more than their fair share of nasty surprises in a sign the Federal Reserve's 150 bps in rate hikes are seeping through the economy.

Traders have dialled down bets on where rates might peak, enabling a tentative equity rally. So, for some on Wall Street, a weaker jobs print may end up being good news.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe says the choice at Thursday's policy meeting is between a quarter-point rate hike or a half-point one. But markets are not buying it.

A weak Aussie dollar that is boosting imported inflation is contributing to those bets. And remember, Lowe has a track record of talking down rate hike risks, only to capitulate later. With inflation at two-decade peaks, traders are betting on more of the same.This year has tempered a long-held view that EU nations such as Poland and Hungary are part of a lucky fringe within emerging markets.

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