Investors weighing stocks as a way to beat inflation may want to look beyond the U.S. market, according to research from Citigroup.
“But it would take quite some upturn in U.S. inflation to turn this into a negative real return,” the strategists said. Still, they suggested that “maybe the best inflation hedges are to be found in the cheaper markets outside the U.S,” where real stock returns may remain positive “even if inflation rose towards 1970s levels.”
During the 1970s, when investors struggled with 7% inflation, the only sectors that produced “positive real returns” in the U.S, were energy and telecommunications, their research found. “However, the natural inflation-hedging qualities of oil stocks have been constrained by ESG concerns,” the strategists said. “Maybe mining stocks will do a better job this time round.”
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