Shortage of semiconductors, dubbed the 'new oil,' could dent GDP growth, boost inflation

"Taken together, while we see relatively modest implications of the semiconductor shortage for GDP growth and the industrial sector, it represents another reason to expect core goods inflation to remain firm this year," Goldman economist Spencer Hill said in a note.in 2021, the impact could still be noticeable. Goldman said the impact could reach as high as a 1% subtraction from activity, but likely will be closer to 0.5%."While semiconductors account for only 0.

The knock-on impacts of any disruptions in the semiconductor industry are becoming increasingly apparent. "As the world becomes more interconnected, more automated and greener, each unit of GDP growth will contain a higher content of semiconductors. Integrated circuits are becoming the key commodity input for economic activity," wrote TS Lombard economist Rory Green."The current severe shortage of semiconductors, which is halting automotive production worldwide, underscores the speed and scale of the changes under way," he said.

Still, Goldman's Hill said the inflationary impact likely won't last far as supply increases later this year and into 2022. But the shortage now "represents another reason to expect core goods inflation to remain firm this year," he said.Get stock picks, analyst calls, exclusive interviews and access to CNBC TV.

Copper was 'the new oil' last week. No boost to inflation either way. 🐵

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