Russia’s Wagner mercenaries face uncertainty after the presumed death of their leader in plane crash

The crash has raised questions about the future of Prigozhin’s private army, which fought alongside Russian troops in Ukraine before his brief uprising against military leaders in Moscow.

The crash has raised questions about the future of Prigozhin’s private army, which fought alongside Russian troops in Ukraine before his brief uprising against military leaders in Moscow. Others, however, say Prigozhin built deep, personal connections that Moscow could find challenging to replace quickly.This summer, Wagner helped secure a national referendum in the Central African Republic that cemented presidential power; it is a key partner for Mali’s army in battling armed rebels; and it contacted the military junta in Niger that wants its services following a coup.

Wagner forces have served as personal bodyguards for President Faustin Archange Touadera, protecting the capital of Bangui from rebel threats and helping Touadera win the July 30 constitutional referendum that could extend his power indefinitely. Nathalia Dukhan, a senior investigator at The Sentry, a policy organization based in Washington, predicted the Kremlin would try to bring Africa closer into its orbit.

Redut was created by the Russian Defense Ministry, which had sought to put Wagner under its control. Following the June mutiny, Putin said the mercenaries could sign contracts with the ministry and keep serving under one of the group’s top commanders, Andrei Troshev. It wasn’t clear how many troops accepted, but media reports put the number at a few thousand.

Britain’s Defense Ministry said Prigozhin’s demise “would almost certainly have a deeply destabilizing effect on the Wagner Group.” While U.S. officials didn’t confirm that Russia or Wagner had any role in Bazoum’s ouster, there are fears the Kremlin could exploit it to weaken Western positions in West Africa, where Wagner mercenaries already are active in Mali and have a suspected presence in Burkina Faso.

In neighboring Mali, a military junta that seized power in 2020 expelled French troops, diplomats, and media, and ordered an end to a decade-long U.N. peacekeeping mission.

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