Retail Sales Fell In May. Here's What That Means For Retail Commercial Properties.

Retail sales fell 1.3% in May. Should we worry that consumers are running out of steam as the boost from stimulus checks received earlier this spring fades? An unexpected slowing of consumer spending could have negative implications for the economic recovery, as well as for the embattled retail commercial property sector and retail REITs.; in fact, even after the decline in last month, spending was 10.9% above the pre-pandemic trend, not far from the 12.

How are brick & mortar sales holding up in recent months, following the surge in e-commerce sales during the pandemic? In-store sales had been facing stiff competition from the growing online channel for several years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, weakening conditions in the retail property markets and impacting retail REITs .

The e-commerce share of retail sales jumped in April 2020 to 24.8%, from 18.3% just prior to the pandemic. Since then, however, the e-commerce share has drifted lower, and in May was 1.3 percentage points above its trend growth.Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Nareit The high level of total retail sales and the moderation of the e-commerce share has resulted in brick & mortar sales in May that were 11.1% above recent trends. As vaccination rates rise and the risk of exposures to COVID-19 decrease, more and more shoppers are returning to the stores and malls.

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