Off-year election results in three key states — Pennsylvania, Virginia and Kentucky — serve as a flashing red warning light for Republicans worried that President Trump’s deep unpopularity outside rural areas may threaten their grip on the White House, the Senate and numerous state legislatures.
In many cases, they reflected Republican struggles in suburban areas that once were crucial to GOP advances.“There are some canaries in the coal mine right now and we in the party would do ourselves a favor by paying attention,” said Jim Merrill, a Republican consultant based in New Hampshire, where Democrats also made significant gains in local races. Some polls show Trump’s approval ratings have tanked in a state he lost by 0.4% in 2016.
Trump told cheering supporters at the rally that a Bevin loss would send “a really bad message,” and pleaded, “You can’t let that happen to me.” He looked to save face Wednesday, tweeting that the rally had given Bevin “at least 15 points,” a claim at odds with state polls.For the president’s own re-election race — and for Republicans looking further ahead — the results in Virginia and Pennsylvania were more alarming.
Josh Holmes, a Republican strategist in Washington who worked for a decade as chief of staff for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell , sees those results as “huge warnings” for Republicans. “There is not a single socialist among them and they are probably horrified by the likes of Elizabeth Warren,” Holmes added. But many are high-income, highly educated and well-informed voters “who obviously have a big problem with the Republican Party right now.”
Impeachment is already “baked in,” with Republicans all but certain to acquit Trump if the House approves articles of impeachment, according to a senior GOP Senate aide who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal assessments. Because the Democratic-led inquiry looks “nakedly political,” the aide said, it will be “very easy for GOP senators to vote” to leave him in office.
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