President Donald Trump’s slide in opinion polls is weighing on Senate Republicans in 10 competitive races, while Democrats are playing defense over two seats, increasing the odds of Trump’s Republicans losing their 53-47 majority on Nov. 3.
Americans have been voting early at an unprecedented pace as they look for ways to avoid exposure to the coronavirus pandemic that has killed nearly 220,000 people in the United States. Twenty-eight million people have cast early ballots. The memory of Trump’s surprise win four years ago after polls showed rival Hillary Clinton with a modest lead, burns brightly for Democratic candidates and voters.In the closing weeks of the campaign, Republican incumbents have sought to concentrate on their own individual races, rather than Trump.
A sex scandal engulfing North Carolina Democrat Cal Cunningham has raised Republican hopes of denying Democrats victory in a state seen as a potential tipping point.
Sure - % of Americans saying they’re better off now than they were four years ago Sep 2020 (Trump): 55% Dec 2012 (Obama): 45% Oct 2004 (Bush 43): 47% Jul 1992 (Bush 41): 38% Jul 1984 (Reagan): 44% -Gallup
Fact: “Democrats are poring over early vote totals, circulating anxiety-ridden campaign memos & bracing for a long two weeks,' POLITICO is reporting, as Republicans take lead among early & mail-in voting in Michigan & overwhelmingly in TX, as Dem youth vote crashes in PA & WI
More evidence of polling error. NYT poll of Georgia says Democrats should have about a 25-point edge in modeled voters (including D-leaning independents) amongst the early vote to date. Problem? According to the Democratic vote file vendor, their edge is a whopping 1 point.
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