Report: Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Decreased By 8% In A Week

The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats , as shown in the attached tweet.

A drop of 8% in just a week is a pretty significant change in the supply/demand balance, which is now at a similar level as it was in early January 2022. The number of 381,000 cars, compared to Tesla's manufacturing capacity, is equivalent to about 93 days of production - down from 102 at the end of August. It means that it's now lower than in November 2021 .increased manufacturing capacity in China, which allowed Tesla to significantly decrease wait times to just a few weeks"Hi everybody. Tesla's order backlog was 381,000 units on Sep 7, equal to 93 days of global production.

If we check the details, it turns out that the situation in California is not changing that much. The estimated order backlog actually increased from over 204,000 to over 208,000, but due to a higher production rate, the average wait time decreased from 131 days to 125 days.

Global inventory Tesla 4 days. Rest of the car OEM generally 90+ days. Tesla don’t want half a year-1 year wait times on some trims. So this is actually good news. Reason to less backlog: growth 50% y/y for several years. When prod exc demand. -Adjust record margins. Playbook.

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