Defensive structures of SPY, HYG, and XME all look interesting as the underlying indices look vulnerable. Strategies may have to target August and September with spreads to keep costs in line. With the Fed willing to backstop so well, downside may be limited to 2 standard deviations but why risk losing 10% on the S&P or 7% HYG from here?
XME looks particularly interesting with the sharp recovery since 3/23 counting on a major Chinese supply impetus. It looks to me like demand may not regain enough strength to warrant that move and the recent breather of copper and steel is giving the signal XME could be vulnerable. XME 2m IV is in its 81 percentile and fair to forecast. 2m Skew is 1.26 standard deviations over its mean showing options investors are concerned.
FXE looks to have gained momentum from the odd place of better European COVID-19 reopening performance of late. If that plays out, a weaker dollar advantages GLD and hurts iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index . A US trade war with China and any reduction of US purchasing power hurts the top lines of EEM companies.
Ngl, that picture reminds me of the bridge from Asgard in Thor...
There is a risk here that the hope in the more optimistic earnings recovery of the second half may have to be downgraded and the impact across more highly correlated portfolios hit hard.
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