Fortunately for Donald Trump and his supporters, a lot can happen in the final two weeks of a presidential election. Four years ago at this time, Hillary Clinton was leading by 6.8 points in national polls and eventually lost. Eight years earlier, Barack Obama was leading by a nearly identical 6.9 points and won.
Mr. Trump is surely taking comfort in this history, and many Republicans expect this year to be a repeat of 2016, when surveys underestimated Mr. Trump’s support in swing states that he ultimately carried. But placing your faith in the inaccuracy of the polls is risky for at least two reasons. First, polling for the 2018 midterm elections, as well as for off-year gubernatorial races and special elections, has been largely accurate.
Joe Biden has led the current race for months, and the Real Clear Politics polling average currently puts him 8.6 points ahead. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has him up by 11 and the most recent Fox News poll has him leading by 10. More significantly, Mr. Biden is ahead in the battlegrounds that are expected to decide the race, including in states that Mr. Trump won in 2016, such as Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Mr.
It’s hard to argue with how the Democrats have played their hand in 2020. Mr. Trump wanted to run against a divisive leftist firebrand. Instead, he found himself facing an amiable journeyman who is best known for his pragmatism and ability to play well with others. Nevertheless, Mr. Trump has spent the campaign trying to redefine his opponent, which has left less time to make the case for his own re-election.
The Trump campaign sees Thursday’s debate as the president’s final chance to change the direction of the race, and the question is whether Mr. Trump will cooperate. Attacking Anthony Fauci and Hunter Biden, or calling for his political rivals to be jailed, may go over well at his rallies, but it’s not clear how it gets him any closer to a second term. The president’s problem isn’t a lack of enthusiasm among his supporters, it’s a lack of supporters, which is why he’s trailing.
opinion jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj never thought we'd ever see a defilement of our Presidency a four year stain on our great nation as the end draws near for our national grief and the aberration of a racist in chief
opinion jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj There is a .00000000000001% chance of lightning striking twice in the same place for trnp 🦠🦠🔥🦆🦆🦆🦆
opinion jasonrileywsj Outstanding
opinion jasonrileywsj Hopefully lightening will strike twice close enough to give WSJ second thoughts.
opinion jasonrileywsj No. Only wrong demographic polling adjustments.
opinion jasonrileywsj Lying media again ... hypocrisy
opinion jasonrileywsj Trump divides our Nation
opinion jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj I a former Democrat who just voted for realDonaldTrump AGAIN, so go figure. I don’t listen to polls, just vote for those who offer me something:
opinion jasonrileywsj AMAZING what a TRUE National Leader can do when they are HONEST with their people. The President continues to fail badly, Joe WILL BE EXPECTED to find a way to achieve the same results as Jacinda Ardern has. With 60 Million Americans already voting, we expect positive RESULTS!
opinion jasonrileywsj DON’S BODY COUNT AS OF TODAY 230,086 of children, Moms & Dads as he continues his plan of “IT IS WHAT IT IS” DON’S PLAN of Herd Immunity will take 80% of the citizens to become infected resulting in US 3,310,026 DEATHS! Instead of fighting his CDC & FDA, HE SHOULD JUST BE HONEST!
opinion jasonrileywsj The odds overseas for gambling on the election are not faked. That is where you put your $ where your mouth is. The pivot is PA. Yes some other swing states matter, but PA is top dog in my opinion. Just hope there is a definite outcome no matter who wins.
opinion jasonrileywsj Actually, it is a myth that lightning will not strike twice in the same place. We'll see.
opinion jasonrileywsj Does Trump understand only his people show up for his rallies? He should be thinking about reaching outside his circle. Maybe he just wants the accolades.
opinion jasonrileywsj A much better story would be a description of specific changes pollsters made this presidential election cycle. Could it be that pollsters have not made the necessary changes to accurately predict the outcome?
opinion jasonrileywsj Trumpers at the polls
opinion jasonrileywsj The lightening has already struck...You just forgot to come in out of the storm. NothingCanStopWhatIsComing
opinion jasonrileywsj “The last thing Mr. Biden wants is a debate on the issues” Say what ?
opinion jasonrileywsj Watch the news
opinion jasonrileywsj TrumpIsCheating TrumpWillCheat VoteHimOut2020
opinion jasonrileywsj And it will...realDonaldTrump is a real winner
opinion jasonrileywsj The editorial board is sure working on misinformation and happy Trump Virus talk
opinion jasonrileywsj Polling errors? Uh, no. HillaryClinton was a terrible candidate and JoeBiden / BarackObama didn’t do shit in 8 years.
opinion jasonrileywsj When you learn more about the polling process, it’s very easy to see how there could be another huge polling miss again. Taking a sample of a few hundred and extrapolating that over a state or country is filled with flaws
opinion jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj Look at battleground states this time in 2016 vs now and results in 2016. Could still be a toss up this year. We’ll see.
opinion jasonrileywsj Lightning will strike twice for the delusional who are oblivious to the ground enthusiasm for Trump everywhere. People are lining up in thousands to see and hear him. How many decline to answer the polls? Who are likely to answer political polls in the age of cancel culture?
opinion jasonrileywsj The polling is not as accurate as pollsters pretend.
opinion jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj The WSJ seems to be bought and paid for by the Left and can now print only propaganda.
opinion jasonrileywsj Why even release polls? They’re just public opinion and always pro Democrats
opinion jasonrileywsj then the trump genocide of america happened 230000 dead, He got you to panic over toilet paper, he simultaneously took control of the manufacturing and distribution of the N95 mask, non are available for purchase its the only true protection we had
opinion jasonrileywsj Fake news
opinion jasonrileywsj Trump is a complete and catastrophic failure for the country.
opinion jasonrileywsj Trump was not on the ballot in 18 or any 19 off year elections. Russia, Russia, Russia poisoned the 18 elections it is universally agreed, plus party in power generally dips in off year congressional elections.
opinion jasonrileywsj Gang Stalking is Torture Funded Through Entitlements and Government Jobs
opinion jasonrileywsj It’s only gotta be wrong in about two states.
opinion jasonrileywsj Nah. It isn't polling error - it is the media, cancel culture, and widespread violence against Trump supporters and other innocents. Few are willing to risk employment and safety to make life easy for a pollster. Trumps numbers are WAY higher than the polls. Take it to the bank.
opinion jasonrileywsj Save_the_Iraqi_people
opinion jasonrileywsj Haha. They are not errors—they are just part of a narrative—you know the narrative that the MSM paints? The ones that don’t cover Biden’s hard drive? Those guys and girls.
opinion jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj I bought a subscription to you guys but WTF, this is five days old. Why post now? In election days that is like five weeks.
opinion jasonrileywsj We also need to watch for state level discrepancies, in polling and votes counts. The many devoted Clerks, local officials, and Secretaries of State will no doubt monitor it closely, but every check and balance will be critical this year. Guarantee Honesty.
opinion jasonrileywsj Don't trust it
opinion jasonrileywsj And it is happening just like before and for the exact same reasons.
opinion jasonrileywsj Again
opinion jasonrileywsj A Big red índices . Monday
opinion jasonrileywsj You better duck, here it comes.
opinion jasonrileywsj With God all things are possible
opinion jasonrileywsj Here is your light
opinion jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj the polls had Hillary's lead in battleground states within the margin of error. That's not the case in 2020.
opinion jasonrileywsj Or for once and for an acknowledgment that the media and elites are so out of touch that their polls are literally worthless...
opinion jasonrileywsj Or this.
opinion jasonrileywsj Too little. Too late
opinion jasonrileywsj Aka republicans stealing it.
opinion jasonrileywsj C'mon Jason. The WSJ works with NBC in polling. That is such a left-wing organization tainted by confirmation bias.
opinion jasonrileywsj The enthusiasm for this president is 3x from the last election 2016. Fake news just couldn't handle that voting For Trump is voting for our country and our own families.
opinion jasonrileywsj It won’t happen! Trump is done! Broke! America is sick and tired of the anarchy! BidenHarris2020
opinion jasonrileywsj agree completely, now is the time for Trump to pack his bags and so is his stupid daughter Ivanka
opinion jasonrileywsj watching the midwest (mi, wi, mn) with D govs as pivotal to his chances. Other battlegrounds are already within error margins
opinion jasonrileywsj it is
opinion jasonrileywsj DON’S BODY COUNT AS OF TODAY 227,419 of children, Moms & Dads as he continues his plan of “IT IS WHAT IT IS” DON’S PLAN of Herd Immunity will take 80% of the citizens to become infected resulting in US 3,310,026 DEATHS! Instead of fighting his CDC & FDA, HE SHOULD JUST BE HONEST!
opinion jasonrileywsj Snap crackle pop
opinion jasonrileywsj Distorted View.....☕️☕️
opinion jasonrileywsj Or the honest people making the Polls!
opinion jasonrileywsj The term jasonrileywsj is so desperately looking for to describe this is systemic bias.
opinion jasonrileywsj Lol They aren’t errors. The polls are over sampled by the bought and paid for establishment so the media can claim Biden is ahead when in fact the opposite is true.
opinion jasonrileywsj It's not 'lightning' nor rocket science America majority Right & white. Notion that boosting voter turnout favors Ds more illogical D myth-making - it favors non-voting Right & white majority Polls only report what survey & they don't survey the non-voting Right white majority
opinion jasonrileywsj It will!
opinion jasonrileywsj Flush the toilet! America is much better than this man of poor immoral character
opinion jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj I want to know about Hunter & Joe regarding their deals with China. Not your opinion on the 2020 election.
opinion jasonrileywsj Stop censorship! American people have right to know, Tweeter, Facebook, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN etc.
opinion jasonrileywsj There are more god fearing originalists than the polls care to admit. They vote with their hearts. No one should be surprised he wins again. realDonaldTrump will be president Nov 4
opinion jasonrileywsj America deserve better ,we are better then this
opinion jasonrileywsj One can only hope lightning does....strike him I mean.
opinion jasonrileywsj The mainstream media polls are clearly selective blindness
opinion jasonrileywsj Too many people find Trump volatile and divisive. Biden may be flawed but he is neither of those.
opinion jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj Yee of little faith.
opinion jasonrileywsj Ridiculous
opinion jasonrileywsj it has struck hard. Incriminating Biden Documents Delivered To Delaware Police Department
opinion jasonrileywsj WSJ used to be fair and unbiased.
opinion jasonrileywsj What happened in 2016? You all thought that wasn’t possible! Biden can’t even draw a crowd of 20. And, Trump has thousands everywhere he goes.
opinion jasonrileywsj Just like the hanging chads ?
opinion jasonrileywsj Trump foreign “wins”: abandoned Kurd allies, NK has more nukes than under Obama, ok’s Chinese Uyghurs in concentration camps, does nothing about bounties on our troops, Silent on Hong Kong democracy, shitcans TPP allowing China to dominate Pacific, fractures NATO/allies. Winning
opinion jasonrileywsj Polls don't matter. Go vote! VoteThemOut Vote
opinion jasonrileywsj This is what they're saying now bout when it's all said and done they gone say he won fairly. Smmfh
opinion jasonrileywsj Trump cant fill the 2 minutes with his accomplishments unless cuddling up to our greatest national security threats count as foreign policy wins. I'd welcome that debate.
opinion jasonrileywsj Nazi. Why can't your supporters see that?
opinion jasonrileywsj Lightening is going to strike twice. Trump is a lightening rod. The corporatist-media's whole-cloth narrative, with all the resources these scumbags have behind them, is being wasted.
opinion jasonrileywsj Only if you think Nancy Pelosi is more likable. Obviously, it’s she he’s running against, not Biden/Harris.
opinion jasonrileywsj Lmao
opinion jasonrileywsj 2lightning that is starting to strike: Iran and Russia
opinion jasonrileywsj Hahahaha what a joke. Your opinion is fake news.
opinion jasonrileywsj I do agree that Trump needs to focus on his accomplishments instead of attacking Biden’s character; however, the idea that Joe has been leading for months is a stretch.😂 Although polls are important, they are often inaccurate!
opinion jasonrileywsj “odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are only around 1 in 500,000.” -CDC (
opinion jasonrileywsj If polls are wrong again, that is not lightning striking, that would indicate an ongoing problem with polling accuracy.
opinion jasonrileywsj So Barr is gonna announce something?
opinion jasonrileywsj Voter suppression will provide Trump a boost again. But the dem base is motivated.
opinion jasonrileywsj BS article. Waste of time.
opinion jasonrileywsj Omg more propaganda 😂😂
opinion jasonrileywsj Don't care. We need to vote as if 2016 is gonna repeat itself. Turn out those numbers, folks!
opinion jasonrileywsj From opinion: A repeat of 2016 would require widespread foreign interference that again all work in the president’s favor, writes jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj Trump is winning. That's the true but media can't accept it.
opinion jasonrileywsj There is a reason there were widespread polling “errors” in 2016. Those reason are still in place. There are widespread polling “errors” this election cycle.
opinion jasonrileywsj I’m not sure about that. We want less regulations. Power to the people!’
opinion jasonrileywsj
opinion jasonrileywsj 1/4 million dead Americans under president trump may not get white conman potus landslide fired when Obama would’ve rightly got blown out in polls & election, what’s it take to get blown out fired for cause? BidenHarris2020 VoteHimOut COVID19 debates
opinion jasonrileywsj Comey’ s announcement 11 days out was a game changer.
opinion jasonrileywsj Never underestimate The Donald
opinion jasonrileywsj The article was laced with inaccuracies.
opinion jasonrileywsj Trump is done and he knows it too.
opinion jasonrileywsj Ooh
opinion jasonrileywsj This is foolish. Polling errors have nothing to do with an election, and everything to do with polling companies who are increasingly paid for specific results.
opinion jasonrileywsj So basically it can happen?
opinion jasonrileywsj False he’s going to win so easily you people live in a bubble wake up!!!!!!
opinion jasonrileywsj Trump 2020. Everyone knows this and just because you write the opposite doesn’t give your propaganda any more credibility.
opinion jasonrileywsj Sure keep tooting your own horn
opinion jasonrileywsj so, a repeat of 2016 basically
opinion jasonrileywsj Dump the Trump please 🤡
opinion jasonrileywsj Right all thefake news have JoeBiden ahead of POTUS I can’t wait for Election Day... dejavú
opinion jasonrileywsj Or for Americans to finally wise up to who they’re really think is a “good guy”
opinion jasonrileywsj Bullshit, we know the polls are all LIES
opinion jasonrileywsj I sincerely hope this article doesn't age as poorly as hillary clinton congratulating herself for becoming president prematurely on twitter.
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