On August 21, 2017, with the S&P 500 SPX, +0.95% at 2,428, I wrote a MarketWatch column that pushed back against gloom-and-doom pundits who were predicting an impending market crash.
The S&P 500 now is 80% higher. So, surely stocks are overpriced. Not so fast. Yes, stock prices are higher, but interest rates are lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield now at around 1.33%. If the U.S. economy, earnings, dividends, and stock prices are not substantially higher 10 years from now than they are today, we will have a lot more to worry about then our stock portfolios. If they are higher, we will be glad we bought stocks instead of bonds.
Finally, consider Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio . The cyclically adjusted earnings yield , which is the inverse of CAPE, provides a rough estimate of the real, inflation-adjusted return from stocks and should consequently be compared to the real, inflation-adjusted return from bonds.
“The bond market tells us what investors are predicting for inflation and interest rates over the next 10 years.” Markets are hardly infallible but it is nonetheless noteworthy that bond prices reflect expectations that inflation and interest rates will remain subdued over at least the next 10 years.
BS. Stocks are priced way too high!
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