While North Korea is likely to continue showcasing its weapons in the coming weeks, it could keep things relatively quiet before the opening of the February Winter Olympics in China, its main ally and economic lifeline, launching known short-range missiles rather than more provocative systems.
North Korea in recent months has ramped up tests of short-range missiles designed to defeat missile defenses in the region. Nam said North Korea would time the test to maximize its political effect, with South Korean presidential elections scheduled in March and President Joe Biden facing crucial midterm elections in November. North Korea conducted its sixth and last test of a nuclear explosive device in September 2017.
However, the frequency of tests since then exceeds usual technological timelines and apparently reflects Kim’s desire to break out of the country’s current deepening economic problems and international isolation — what appears to be the toughest period of his decade-long rule. According to South Korean estimates, North Korea’s trade with China shrank by about 80% in 2020 before plunging again by two-thirds in the first nine months of 2021. The contraction in 2020 was the biggest since 1997 as grain production dropped to the lowest level since Kim took power in 2011.
Its resumption of the train route with China indicates how hard it has become for its leadership to withstand the economic strain caused by border closures, said Park Won Gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Seoul’s Ewha Womans University.
KimTongHyung Joe is too smart and too tough for that
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