NFL Wild-Card Best Bets | The Draft Network

In addition to my picks and research which you can hear on the Hot Read Hits Podcast, here are some wild-card weekend notes on why I'm targeting these games, courtesy of The betting environment for postseason games is much tougher than the regular season. With fewer games, the lines are just much more efficient. So finding value is hard. We don’t bet just to bet. We bet to make money. So just one pick this week. But I’ll include my notes on some of the other games of interest.

Since losing Henry Ruggs, the Raiders are averaging just 19.4 points per game. Carr and company have scored a touchdown on just 16.5% of their drives since their Week 8 bye. That puts them among the worst offenses in football. Only the Panthers, Texans, Falcons, Jaguars, and Giants have worse TD-conversion rates during this period. The Bengals offense could also struggle. Despite the Bengals winning handily in Las Vegas earlier in the season, Cincinnati’s offense mustered only 4.

Tampa’s run defense ranks third for the year but just 15th in the last 10 games vs. the run. This game is expected to be played in 20-30 mph winds and rain. But boding well for Tampa Bay is that since 2002, quarterbacks making their first playoff start against a QB who is not are just 14-32-1 Against The Spread .

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