IN THE decades after the second world war carmakers were the undisputed champions of the personal-transport economy. Competition and economies of scale made cars affordable to millions of motorists in industrialised countries. In the 1980s and 1990s the likes of General Motors and Toyota boasted some of the world’s richest market capitalisations. When it came to getting around town, nothing beat the automobile.
The market could be enormous. In 2019, ahead of its flotation, Uber put it at $5.7trn, based on the 20trn or so kilometres that passengers travel each year in 175 countries using road vehicles, including public transport. Consultancies’ estimates are more subdued, and vary considerably. But all point to rich potential. IHS Markit reckons that what it calls “new transport” will be worth $400bn in revenues by 2030. KPMG puts the figure at $1trn. . New transport will make up 40% of the total.
The automobile’s appeal endures on the outskirts of cities and beyond. Bernstein reckons that most driving takes place away from congested urban cores. Nearly nine-tenths of car miles in America are driven in the suburbs, small towns and rural locations, where a private car is often the only choice. Bike-sharing schemes jostle in new dedicated lanes with electric scooters for hire. Before the pandemic consultants at McKinsey reckoned that renting e-scooters might generate revenues of $500bn worldwide by 2030. Even flying taxis may at last be about to take off; some of their developers, such as Joby, have earned multibillion-dollar valuations.
The car companies have also been competing with the challengers head on. It helps that many car firms are familiar with the principle of charging for use rather than ownership. In Britain more than 90% of cars use some form of financing. Arrangements where the customer pays a monthly sum over two to four years to offset depreciation are a lot like a long-term rental. It is not a huge jump from that to a subscription service.
Bold of you to assume we'll have running cars in 2050
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