Musk: Doubt about spam accounts could scuttle Twitter deal

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his deal to buy Twitter can’t move forward unless the company shows public proof that less than 5% of the accounts on the platform are fake or spam.

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made the comment in a reply to another user on Twitter early Tuesday. He spent much of the previous day in a back-and-forth with Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal, who posted a series of tweets explaining his company’s effort to fight bots and how it has consistently estimated that less than 5% of Twitter accounts are fake., Musk said that “20% fake/spam accounts, while 4 times what Twitter claims, could be much higher. My offer was based on Twitter’s SEC filings being accurate.

“Twitter shares will be under pressure this morning again as the chances of a deal ultimately getting done is not looking good now," Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who covers both Twitter and Tesla, said in a research note. He estimated that there's “60%+ chance" that Musk ends up walking away from the deal and paying the $1 billion breakup fee.

To finance the acquisition, Musk pledged some of his Tesla shares, which have slumped by about a third since the deal was announced.In tweets on Monday, Agrawal acknowledged Twitter isn’t perfect at catching bots. He wrote that every quarter, the company has made the estimate of less than 5% spam. “Our estimate is based on multiple human reviews of thousands of accounts that are sampled at random, consistently over time,” Agrawal wrote.

Twitter has put the under 5% estimate in its quarterly filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for at least the last two years, well before Musk made his offer last month.

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