In the second half of 2021, Russian pressure on Turkey in Syria intensified. On September 1, Moscow targeted places far away from Idlib, in regions where Turkey is working on stabilisation. This is the first such escalation since Turkey and the Syrian National Army took control of the Afrin region in March 2018.on securing the M4 highway in Idlib did not prevent Moscow from carrying out numerous raids on infrastructure and civilian facilities in that area in 2020 and 2021.
in northern Syria. With these attacks, Russia aims to increase pressure on Turkey and force the government to accept new conditions in future negotiations regarding Syria.The September 1 attack took place about a month before a meeting between Presidents Erdogan and Putin. It targeted a Turkish-backed "al Sham Legion" camp near the city of Afrin, which is close to a base of the Turkish Armed Forces .
Through these attacks, Moscow is demonstrating to Ankara that the external and internal border areas will not be safe and stable unless an agreement - one that no doubt serves Russia’s interests - is reached.On October 26, 2021, the Turkish Parliament approved the extension of the government's authorisation memorandum to send troops to Iraq and Syria for another two years.
Immediately, TAF responded by targeting six SDF locations in the al Shahba area. The irony was that a group of Russian military officers were visiting one of these bases and one was wounded by the TAF strikes. This was more than enough to give Russia an excuse to carry out several raids near a TAF base located 1.5 km south of Marea, making it the first time Russia hit an area so close to a Turkish base in the Euphrates Shield area.
Turkey's official statements, combined with the SNA military mobilisation, were enough to usher in a new reality in northern Aleppo - or at least lay the foundation that could see the SDF pushed away from SNA areas. This perhaps could even lead to a ceasefire between the SNA and the regime. Sometimes a military operation achieves its goals before it even begins.Russian-Turkish negotiations
In the end, if this agreement comes to pass, Russia will be the biggest winner since they have always managed to break every previous agreement and impose new ones. Until both sides reach a solution in Syria, differences will always remain between Russia and Turkey. Namely, Russia will continue to use its military in an attempt to affect future negotiations in ways that will benefit Russia's interests in the region at the expense of Turkey’s.
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