While 10-year JGB yields remain anchored around 0.25%, the US benchmark yield is currently moving in a short-term range between 3.00% and 3.50%. US Treasury yields are under pressure of late as financial markets begin to price in a recession in the US in 2023, leading to interest rate cuts at the back end of the year. This recession re-pricing is starting to show itself in theThe daily USD/JPY chart is starting to show signs of exhaustion. The recent double top around 136.
72 needs to be broken convincingly to allow the pair to move towards 140, a level at which the market expects the Bank of Japan to verbally intervene to try and stem a further rise in USD/JPY. If the recent double top does hold as resistance, then a drift lower for the pair back towards the 131 area is likely but a move below here will prove difficult if the BoJ continues to buy unlimited amounts of JGBs.
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