Nevada is just a really hard state to poll.
Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor)…
I think I have in my head something like this for Nevada: Sanders, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Steyer, Klobuchar, with the last four kind of bunched up in high single digits and low teens. That’s just my assumption from seeing the various polls. If Biden is below second, I think there will be more super-negative coverage of him. And that can make South Carolina harder to win too.
, so if Biden’s pitch is I can win over black voters and build a diverse coalition, a lot is on the line for him there., Biden has lost a lot of support since Iowa and New Hampshire — among people of all races but also black voters. In other words, black voters aren’t some kind of special firewall for Biden.
So in most of these states and the Democratic primary overall, I think the plurality of voters are white voters who do not support Sanders. So I think Micah is right — that speaks to the potential volatility of the race.But if, as you say, Perry, there is a plurality of white voters who are on Team Anyone But Sanders, wouldn’t it behoove someone from the moderate lane who had disappointing finishes in Nevada and South Carolina to drop out? I wouldn’t put it past at least someone dropping out after Nevada.
yesterday saying exactly that. It would be smart for some moderate bigwig (like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi) to encourage this.The BLOOMBERG BOMBS storyline just introduces a ton of potential volatility — particularly in terms of how the moderate lane does or does not consolidate — and because the status quo was pretty great for Bernie. Volatility is potentially bad for him.
At this point, I just don’t see a lot of evidence that the moderate lane candidates are being realistic about their chances or are focused on boosting one member of that group, as opposed to themselves.What is it, 38 percent of delegates are awarded by then?
Yeah. This is why our forecast has such a high chance of no one winning a majority of pledged delegates:It matters more because of the failures of the earlier states.
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Is that code for we don’t like the results we may get? Yes it is. Yes, Nevada is a Hard, Hard state. been there once. We'd rather you say this than give us a bad poll 👍 Because it’s so big and populated? Ha Live there some old friends. Meet them soon I must. Go Warren Go TeamWarren PresidentWarren WonderWarren
Your the ones with all the BIG TECH men behind you. Why is it so hard?
Key Moments From the Democratic Debate in NevadaWarren soared, Buttigieg and Klobuchar quarreled, and Bloomberg had a target on his back. This photo is EVERYTHING 😂 What happens in Vegas , stays in Vegas.. in this case it’s a good thing. DemDebate2020 Warren doing Kathy Bates. misery Have the Democratic candidates stooped to the low, low levels of the potus. If you watch BS carefully, he looks so angry, he might just have another heart attack. What is that saying? “Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely!”
Satellite photos dramatically illustrate the effects of a dry winter on California's Sierra Nevada snowpackCalifornia's Sierra snowpack is much smaller this year than last, as satellite photos show. H.A.A.R.P
'Warren wants to fight everyone': Analysis from the Nevada Democratic DebateElizabeth Warren came out swinging. And Mike Bloomberg went through a blood bath. Catch up with our reporters' analysis during the 9th DemDebate: she has her hand up in EVERY photo and clip. and she's always saying 'can i just...?'
5 takeaways from the Democratic debate in NevadaDemocrats took the stage in Las Vegas for their most heated gathering yet, with former Mayor Michael Bloomberg taking much of the fire. 5 takeaways from the debate: Bloomberg Klobacher Warren Buttieg Biden The only one left standing was Bernie Sanders, Bernie will win the nomination even though Bloomberg purchased the DNC and thinks he can just fire all the other candidates.🤨 Bloomberg isn’t the answer for TheDemocrats to beat realDonaldTrump 🙃 Trump2020NowMoreThanEver ✅ Trump2020LandslideVictory ✅ stableford Funny how hard Stableford pushes the Sanders agenda...suggests Stableford is on the take from someone...
6 Takeaways From the Democratic Debate in NevadaBloomberg was on the defensive, Warren carved up her opponents and Klobuchar and Buttigieg tried to take each other down. The fiery debate signals a harsher campaign as Super Tuesday looms. Can we all agree that ewarren completely and epically blue shelled the hell out of MikeBloomberg tonight? Close? He is done Warren won. End of story.
Coverage of the 2020 Nevada Democratic debate - CNNPolitics'I don't think he was coached hard enough,' CNN commentator Andrew Yang says about Bloomberg's first DemDebate. 'The fact that he did not have those answers at his fingertips lets me know categorically he was not properly prepared for this debate.' Bloomberg fell short? 🤔 What's your excuse, Yang? Or Alzheimers. The lid is slipping off his Slurpee.