The second wave is proving more virulent than the first; India recorded the world’s highest daily tally of infections at 314,835 on Thursday. Hospitals are running out of oxygen; even fancy private healthcare facilities in Mumbai and New Delhi can’t keep pace. People are turning to makeshift facilities for mass cremations.
Productivity has fallen, but the descent is less precipitous than might be expected. Limits on movement are more localised than in last year’s national lockdown, which led to a stunning 23.9% contraction in GDP in the June quarter from a year earlier. Many factories are still running, albeit churning out fewer goods, and construction work continues. Restrictions have also come into effect later along the crisis curve.
The equity market has corrected slightly. But the crisis could force sharper lockdowns. Foreign investors look jittery, turning into net sellers of Indian debt and equity in April, and the rupee has depreciated sharply. One whispered hope is that the spike in infections will be followed by a rapid fall as immunity increases and the vaccine rollout gains momentum. Neelkanth Mishra and team at Credit Suisse estimate some 40% of the population might have antibodies by the end of April. A foundation led by Bain Capital India Managing Director Amit Chandra projects a higher result for Mumbai, tipping it closer to 65% where infections might fall off.
The country is home to the Serum Institute, the world’s top vaccine maker, and politicians are opening the doors to imported jabs, but supply will be tight. Calls are growing for income support; ordinary folks have burnt through savings, in part because the government was frugal with handouts in the first wave. Even so, India has exhausted most of its monetary and fiscal space, one central bank director bleakly noted in meeting minutes released on Thursday.
Breakingviews ugalani Modi should have saved all that money he spent on weapons and bombs.
Breakingviews ugalani 😡Just as planned by our Shadow GoV, collapse current economies & governments & remake them more to their liking - one world gov - total control. 😡 True horror story.
ReutersIndia ugalani Is it anormal rate of cremation ? I assumer cremations happened before covid. At what rate ?
ugalani When your neighbour's house is one fire; don't be confident that it won't engulf your home. pakistan need to move to help India. IndiaNeedsOxygen
ReutersIndia ugalani We won't wish it on anyone. But yeah!
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