The survey did not distinguish between nonvoters who plan to vote in the 2020 general election and those who do not.. A large majority of nonvoters say they plan to vote in 2020, and 55 percent express “absolute certainty” that they will vote this year. Of course,is relatively high in 2020, that doesn’t mean everyone who says they’re interested in voting will ultimately cast a ballot.
The results of the poll indicate that an overall increase in turnout may not be an overwhelming benefit to either side, but either Trump or the Democratic nominee could benefit from finding ways to activate the nonvoters who are more likely to vote for them. Activating nonvoters could be a difficult and expensive venture for campaigns, though, and many nonvoters may still ultimately not turn out, but if 2020 is an especially close election, who doesn’t turn out could matter a whole lot.
FiveThirtyEight So if they are nonvoters. Minors. Felons. Dementia patients. Why are we polling them?
FiveThirtyEight TrumpIsACriminal
FiveThirtyEight That’s some real hard hitting analysis. “If more people show up, some might benefit”
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