In Georgia, Stacey Abrams relies on new voters to buck history

An Abrams campaign analysis provided exclusively to NBC News shows an electorate that is bigger, younger and less white.

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12/5/2021 9:41:00 PM

As Stacey Abrams builds her second gubernatorial campaign in 4 years, she is looking at a Georgia electorate that is far larger, younger and less white, according to an analysis her aides provided exclusively to NBC News .

An Abrams campaign analysis provided exclusively to NBC News shows an electorate that is bigger, younger and less white.

04:08And while voters don't register by party in Georgia, the campaign's modeling of available information on newer registrants estimates that 45 percent are likely Democratic voters and 28 percent are likely Republican voters, with the remaining 27 percent unclassified as yet because of a lack of available data.

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“There is a clear trajectory that has been present for a decade that is continuing of who has registered since 2018 — who is eligible to vote for Stacey this time that was not on the rolls last time," said Abrams campaign spokesman Seth Bringman.

The challenges facing Abrams are historic. She would be the first woman and first person of color to win Georgia's governorship, and both the well-establishedhistorical trendand fresh electoral evidence suggest Democrats who win in the mid-terms will have to overcome a wind at Republicans' backs. headtopics.com

Biden's approval rating is upside-down at 42.3 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, and Republicans made major gains in Virginia and New Jersey elections last month. But Abrams' camp believes the shifts in those states, driven in part by white suburbanites, won't be echoed in Georgia because the electorates are different.

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The campaign's analysis found that 52 percent of registered voters in Georgia suburbs are people of color, whereas the comparable demographics in Virginia and New Jersey are 25 percent and 17 percent, respectively.That sets up a contest not just among the candidates, but between the trend in the state's voting patterns — once a bastion of Republican strength, a streak of narrow Democratic wins

fueled by Abrams' registration and turnout effortshas demonstrated its competitiveness — and what appears to be significant momentum for Republicans nationally.And yet some Republicans have reason to fear that former President Donald Trump's entry into the fray — he has called for Republican Gov. Brian Kemp's ouster and encouraged former Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., to get in — could ravage the party's chances of holding the governor's seat.

"If that happens, it will be the biggest bloodletting Georgia has seen since Sherman took Atlanta," University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock said, referring to Union Gen. William Sherman's burning of the city in 1864. headtopics.com

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Already, Kemp is facing a challenge from former State Rep. Vernon Jones, a onetime Democrat who switched to the GOP last year.All sides say they expect the general election to be close, and the Cook Political Report, a respected electoral odds-maker, shifted the race from"leans Republican" to"tossup" when Abrams announced her bid Dec. 1.

Abrams lost to Kemp by 54,723 votes out of nearly 4 million cast in 2018. Kemp is caught in the thresher of Trump's fury because he refused to intervene on Trump's behalf when Georgia voters handed Biden their 16 electoral votes last year. It was a squeaker, decided by 11,779 of more than 4.9 million votes cast.

Trump's pollsters surveyed a possible primary in August and found an opportunity for Trump to make a difference with an endorsement of Perdue."We found that Brian Kemp is a weak incumbent that could be very susceptible to a strong primary challenge,” pollsters for Trump's SuperPAC wrote in

a memo first reported by Politico, “Trump’s endorsement of David Perdue would completely upend the race.”In September, Trump said at a rally in Perry, Ga. that he so disdains fellow Republican Kemp that it would be"OK" with him if Kemp loses to Abrams. headtopics.com

"Having her, I think, might be better than having your existing governor, if you want to know what I think," Trump saidat his rally."Stacey, would you like to take his place? It's OK with me."Trump allies, including FOX's Sean Hannity and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., have piled on, with Hannity calling on Kemp to drop out and Gingrich writing that Perdue is the only one who can unify the party. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution referred to Kemp's predicament as an

"epic political squeeze"between the pressure of Trump and Perdue in the primary and Abrams in a possible general election re-match.Trump spokeswoman Liz Harrington did not reply to a text inquiring whether Trump has spoken directly to Perdue since Abrams announced her campaign.

Read more: NBC News »

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NBCNews we need stacy--!!-she has excellence and integrity which OUR MANY IN THE HALLS OF POWER--DO NOT HAVE!! GO GURL,,WE LOVE YOU!!! NBCNews She would be an amazing governor. I wish I could vote for her myself. NBCNews may be a factor, but consider Ga is in their feelings about kemp. As GA SecState, he certified his own election and did absolutely nothing that benefited the people of GA. His own state wants him gone and it has nothing to do with trump. Having Abrams run again gives Ga a redo

NBCNews It’s really sad that she has to count on less experienced and “colored” votes to win an election. Although, it can also mean that she knows her limitations and that this has to be her main focus NBCNews Less white..... sounds soooo racist. But what else to expect from the racist party. NBCNews Stacey will ALWAYS have my vote!!!

NBCNews So she is going to move as many illegals to Georgia and give them voting right along with the deceased? NBCNews Please win! I live in VA and we weren’t so lucky! I thought that the governor of any state should be color blind - representing all citizens of USA - not focused on people of color only. Bad sign- very bad- bad candidate

Is she going to give her two weeks notice to Popeyes. They gonna need a new drive thru girl THAT IS THE ONLY WAY SHE CAN WIN NO WHITE VOTES AND ONLY BLACK VOTERS WILL MAKE HER WIN GET WITH IT AMERICA DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN.

Opinion | Stacey Abrams’ governor bid just did something inconceivable in GeorgiaCole Brown: Four major party candidates for Georgia’s top seats are Black, but they all embody the fraught nature of America’s racial politics. - NBC News THINK THINK That's why I will likely contribute, but I realize that nothing is certain in The South. She's sharp and she came very close last time, but Georgia is far from a slam dunk. THINK

I wish her all the best. I love her tenacity in the political world. She gets things done.

What polls say about support for Stacey Abrams as she runs for Georgia governor againRecent polls suggest the Democratic activist faces a tough campaign in her second bid for the office.

2nd Stacey Abrams governor bid sees new tests, intriguesStacey Abrams announced a long-awaited second run for Georgia governor this week, but with Democrats facing a sour national environment and Republican Gov. Brian Kemp facing challenges within his own party, the 2022 campaign will look different from 2018. Abrams' narrow loss, highlighted by her claims that Kemp used his prior post as secretary of state to unfairly push voters away, vaulted her to national stardom in a year when Democrats nationwide capitalized on then-President Donald Trump's unpopularity. Abrams' contention that Georgia could be dragged into the Democratic column by focusing on registering and mobilizing infrequent Democratic-leaning voters was validated in 2020, when Joe Biden won Georgia by about 12,000 votes and in 2021, when Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won runoffs to deliver control of the U.S. Senate to Democrats. What a face to put forward to the world! Before Abrams could ever be successful, she would need to lose about a ton of weight (obesity demonstrates personal weakness), close that garage-size space between her front teeth, and drop that pickaninny-style hair. Go, Stacy, go. You have my support. We need more good people like you. 'Long awaited' by who, the MSM? Just a way to take in more money from donations in which, even when she looses again, she gets to keep. Just like Beto. It's a money making scheme.

‎Pivot: Twitter’s New Anti-Harassment Policy, Chris Cuomo’s Suspension, and Stacey Abrams is Running for Governor on Apple Podcasts.profgalloway explains that EV companies — including Tesla — are overvalued: “When these companies begin to reattach to fundamentals, you're going to see just an unbelievable recalibration and step down.” Listen to PivotPod: profgalloway PivotPod This FEELS like an attack on EV straight from the oil companies. At least elonmusk seems to be doing something to further humanity... anyone else? 🙈🙉🙊

What polls say about support for Stacey Abrams as she runs for Georgia governor againRecent polls suggest the Democratic activist faces a tough campaign in her second bid for the office.

‎Pivot: Twitter’s New Anti-Harassment Policy, Chris Cuomo’s Suspension, and Stacey Abrams is Running for Governor on Apple Podcasts.profgalloway explains that EV companies — including Tesla — are overvalued: “When these companies begin to reattach to fundamentals, you're going to see just an unbelievable recalibration and step down.” Listen to PivotPod: profgalloway PivotPod This FEELS like an attack on EV straight from the oil companies. At least elonmusk seems to be doing something to further humanity... anyone else? 🙈🙉🙊