Some environmental factors suppress storm development, and others fuel it. The combination of both are driving this year’s overall forecast.
“Investments in technology and prediction systems have helped improve track forecasts tremendously in the past two decades. The National Hurricane Center track forecast error has been cut in half, evenWhen climate pattern El Niño develops, which Smith said will happen in the next one to two months, meteorologists will know more about how it will impact the hurricane season.
“El Niño hasn’t developed yet, so the level of hurricane activity is still contingent on the presence and strength of El Nino,” Smith said. “Once that happens, it takes a little bit of time to influence weather patterns, and the influence is dependent upon when it develops and how strong it is.”
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