Humans are imperfect, inconsistent decision-makers

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The problem of bias in decisions is well known. But noise is different precisely because it is less apparent

Your answers weren’t perfect but noisy: slightly above or below the ten-second mark. And if they were consistently wrong in one direction, then there is bias too, which is a different form of error .

The divergences are stark. In a courthouse in Miami, one judge would grant refugees asylum in 88% of cases while another would do so 5% of the time. A large study of radiologists found that the false-positive rate ranged from 1% to 64%, meaning that two-thirds of the time, a radiologist said a mammogram showed cancer when it was not cancerous. Doctors are more likely to prescribe opioids at the end of a long day. Judges made harsher decisions leading up to their breaks and on hotter days.

Noise is sometimes good. When different investors size up a trade or book reviewers reach different assessments, the diversity of opinion is beneficial. But more commonly it creates problems. In law noise means unfairness. In business it can be costly.

 

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