Check out our free-to-read House election model to see which party is winning in each district
Right now, our model thinks the Democrats are very likely to keep their majority in the House of Representatives
House simulationsEvery day, our model explores 10,000 different paths each House race could take. These simulations allow one party to do unusually well or poorly nationwide, and also provide appropriate uncertainty in each specific contest. The bars below display the probability of each major party winning a specific number of seats.
Win probability by districtMost House races are uncompetitive. However, a few dozen front-line races will determine whether the Democrats can expand their majority, or see it dwindle or even disappear. The map below displays the party favoured to win each seat, and its estimated probability of victory.
National popular vote for the HouseHouse races are winner-take-all, and a party’s share of seats can differ from its vote share. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of each party’s share of all votes for House candidates, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes. We impute missing votes in districts where candidates are unopposed.
Sources: Clerk of the House of Representatives; Congressional Quarterly; MIT Election Lab; VoteView; Gary Jacobson; Ballotpedia; Daily Kos Elections; OurCampaigns; state election records; Corwin Smidt; American National Election Studies; Polidata; RealClearPolitics; DC Political Report; FiveThirtyEight; US Election Atlas; Huffington Post Pollster; Congressional District Religiosity Dataset; American Community Survey; United States Census; Wikipedia; Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections; Carl Klarner; Federal Election Commission; Joseph Bafumi; Roper Center;
Breakingviews - Joe Biden’s tax plan has a flaw: too many losers
Joe Biden says he won’t slap new taxes on people who earn less than $400,000 a year if he becomes U.S. president. But if carried through, his tax plan could create losers among those who fall far short of that symbolic income threshold. That could be a problem when it comes...
House panel investigates political interference by White House over coronavirus at CDC and FDAThe subcommittee is seeking documents and information from the FDA and CDC on agency actions, drafts submitted to the White House and changes made during the review process.
U.S. House Speaker Pelosi, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin spoke by phone on coronavirus aidU.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke by phone for about an hour on Monday about coronavirus relief, Pelosi's spokesman Drew Hammill wrote on Twitter. Trump needs to apologize for Bringing Covid-19 into the WH by the way he made sure the White House DID NONE OF THE NEEDED PRECAUTIONS TO KEEP IT OUT. Trump is not a victim He’s a Covid-19 ENABLER normiesyouaresolovedpleasewakeup Play and play again . V
U.S. vice presidential debate to include plexiglass barrier after White House outbreakVice President Mike Pence and challenger Kamala Harris will be separated by a plexiglass barrier during their debate on Wednesday in an effort to lower the risk of coronavirus transmission, the commission overseeing the event said. All Bull! No one at 74 and obese just leaves the hospital cured in 3 days! Doctors lying to public! Touting drugs he has an $$ interest in! Never really had the disease! A bogus weekend in the hospital to change the narrative of a failing administration and failing campaign! Good. Pence is sleaze even before covid. Put them both in a glass booth...much like they do on game shows...simple
White House Warns U.S. Rivals Against Seeking AdvantageWith President Trump hospitalized for coronavirus, a top White House official warned against any attempt by U.S. rivals to take advantage of a situation that security experts said presents a fertile ground for interference and disinformation. Oh, right I know. TheDemocrats Yea, the White House wants to be the only one in the disinformation game right now. Yes, that oughta do it! 🤦♀️🤦♀️
White House Correspondents Association denounces Trump motorcade photo-op without protective poolThe White House Correspondents Association president denounced Trump for boarding his motorcade for a photo op around Walter Reed without the protective travel pool that is supposed to accompany the US President whenever he is out of the White House Why would anyone in the press corps wanns be anywhere near the idiot?.. Never satisfied
White House reassurances about Trump's condition stir doubts insteadWhile multiple photos were released showing Trump in different locations and with different clothes, the metadata shows they were taken 10 minutes apart, implying they may have been staged to create the impression of a full day of presidential business He had something else - like a cold maybe. He's a big faker. Why should we believe him? I need the unvarnished truth about what's really going on with this slippery dude. So cares