House of Representatives—Forecasting the US 2020 elections

Check out our free-to-read House election model to see which party is winning in each district

10/6/2020 8:53:00 PM

Check out our free-to-read House election model to see which party is winning in each district

Right now, our model thinks the Democrats are very likely to keep their majority in the House of Representatives

House simulationsEvery day, our model explores 10,000 different paths each House race could take. These simulations allow one party to do unusually well or poorly nationwide, and also provide appropriate uncertainty in each specific contest. The bars below display the probability of each major party winning a specific number of seats.

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Win probability by districtMost House races are uncompetitive. However, a few dozen front-line races will determine whether the Democrats can expand their majority, or see it dwindle or even disappear. The map below displays the party favoured to win each seat, and its estimated probability of victory.

National popular vote for the HouseHouse races are winner-take-all, and a party’s share of seats can differ from its vote share. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of each party’s share of all votes for House candidates, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes. We impute missing votes in districts where candidates are unopposed.

Sources: Clerk of the House of Representatives; Congressional Quarterly; MIT Election Lab; VoteView; Gary Jacobson; Ballotpedia; Daily Kos Elections; OurCampaigns; state election records; Corwin Smidt; American National Election Studies; Polidata; RealClearPolitics; DC Political Report; FiveThirtyEight; US Election Atlas; Huffington Post Pollster; Congressional District Religiosity Dataset; American Community Survey; United States Census; Wikipedia; Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections; Carl Klarner; Federal Election Commission; Joseph Bafumi; Roper Center;

Read more: The Economist »

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