The total on tonight’s game has been consistent, opening at 231.5 and staying at that number at most sites throughout the day.
That number suggests that oddsmakers expect Atlanta to dictate the pace of play tonight. The Hawks are playing to an average total of 233 points, while the Suns are hovering around 223.5. Phoenix has only played one game that went over 230 points over its past seven, and that was in an overtime win over the Spurs.
On the other hand, Atlanta has been playing to even bigger totals than normal lately. The Hawks have hit the Over in seven of their last eight games, going over tonight’s total in six of those contests. In four of those games, the Hawks have obliterated the total, going Over by at least 20 points in regulation. There’s a definite trend here, with only the slowest teams being able to keep the score down against Atlanta.
The Hawks probably won’t be able to push the Suns into a true shootout tonight. That said, Phoenix is going to try to take advantage of the weak Atlanta defense, particularly by feeding Ayton inside. I think the Over is the smart play given how the Hawks have played in recent weeks, but this feels like the least confident bet of the night.The Suns are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games overall.
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