Half a million deaths by the end of February? Current COVID-19 strategies have the US headed in that direction, experts say

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Researchers from the University of Washington also found that wearing masks in public to prevent COVID-19 spread could save nearly 130,000 lives.

The nation's patchwork of differing COVID-19 mandates and the inconsistent use of masks to prevent virus spread could lead to the cumulative loss of more than half a million lives by the end of February, scientists say.

"We are heading into a very substantial fall-winter surge," said Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine."We expect that surge to steadily grow throughout different states, and at the national level continue to increase as we head towards quite high levels of daily death in late December and January.

Story continues“Short of taking humans, putting a mask on them and then spraying them with SARS-CoV-2, which would be absolutely unfeasible and unethical, this study is very thorough and nicely done,” Gandhi said. While model predictions are never perfect, the study’s findings are on track with other recently published data.

"People need to start taking this seriously again," he said."We want to understand how bad it can possibly get if nothing is done and then we can use that to hopefully work our way back a little bit."

 

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