The combination of supply bottlenecks and a surge in household incomes fueled by pandemic-related government aid pushed the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure of inflation, to a 30-year high on a year-on-year basis in August.
The latter may already be starting. A Fed index of inflation expectations tracked by top officials at the U.S. central bank has risen for an unprecedented five straight quarters. At 2.06%, it is above the Fed's 2% target, and likely rising. Consumer expectations have jumped, too. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its 1-year consumer inflation expectations survey for October hit 7.0%, the highest since July 2008.
A year ago, before the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines and at the start of a devastating wave of infections, the prospect of higher borrowing costs seemed years off. Only four Fed policymakers projected the need to raise rates before 2024. It's a choice Fed officials hoped to skirt with a new policy framework built to capture job gains they feel were missed in past business cycles when interest rates were raised too soon.
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